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Moderna, Inc.

MRNA Healthcare Biotechnology

Moderna, Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $1.9 billion, down 39.9% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+29.2%
EPS
+178.4%
Free cash flow
+38.9%
Total debt
+1,765.6%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

253.57 12.11 +5.02%
Market cap
$96.4B
P/E
0.0×
Fwd P/E
−26.1×
Dividend yield
—
F-score
3/9
Altman Z
2.46
Beneish M
−3.52
Dividend safety
n/a
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios
Segments Valuation Filings

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $253.57 the price implies revenue of $197.93 billion by year ten, growing 54.7% a year, at a 10% free-cash-flow margin then.

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ free cash flow after share-based pay at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
54.7% a year for ten years
$253.57
today’s price
Its base case
37.8% a year for five years, then 22.7%
$15.78
93.8% below today’s price

Both are growth in revenue, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Moderna, Inc.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Revenue and margin
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in revenue. It usually slows as the company matures.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

Diluted shares outstanding. Net debt, under Advanced inputs, is taken off before dividing.

Advanced inputs
Free cash flow Revenue and margin
negative is net cash
new shares the cash flow does not pay for

Against Moderna, Inc.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 1.17 × equity premium 4.5% = 9.6% cost of equity; weighted, 9.6%.

Use 9.6%
Equity value $6.36b ▼ below market cap $102.19b
Base case value per share $15.78 equity value ÷ 403.00m shares
Current price $253.57 market price per share
Below today’s price 93.8% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$(22.06b) 10 years of cash to equity+$23.25b terminal value+$5.17b net cash=$6.36b equity value÷403.00m shares=$15.78 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Biotechnology).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E — 8.43× 8.43× — 10.26× —
P/FCF — 14.46× 14.46× — 24.81× —
P/B 14.87× 4.89× 5.95× 150% above 2.05× 626% above
EV/EBITDA — 4.60× 4.60× — 0.65× —
EV/Sales 38.46× 10.55× 23.98× 60% above 8.98× 328% above
P/E P/FCF P/B EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
2.55×6.48×10.42×14.35×10Y avg 5.95×201820192020202120222023202420252026

MRNA trades at 14.87× P/B, against a 10-year average of 5.95× (range 0.81×–15.54×). That is dearer than 88% of the last 8 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $101.45 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.