stockrowWhat it does
Moderna is a biotechnology company that develops medicines made from messenger RNA, or mRNA. These medicines are designed to direct a patient’s cells to produce proteins that can prevent disease or provide therapeutic benefit. Its platform combines mRNA science, delivery technology and manufacturing processes.
The company sells three commercial respiratory vaccines: the COVID vaccines Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE, and the RSV vaccine mRESVIA. Its customers include commercial-market buyers, foreign governments and international organizations. In the United States, it primarily sells COVID and RSV vaccines to wholesalers and distributors, with some direct sales to retailers and healthcare providers.
Its development work spans infectious-disease vaccines, oncology therapeutics and rare-disease therapeutics. The clinical pipeline includes 35 therapeutic and vaccine programs, including six in late-stage development. Intismeran autogene is an individualized cancer therapy developed with Merck; it is designed from a patient’s tumor sample and can encode up to 34 cancer-specific neoantigens. Other programs include flu, flu-plus-COVID, norovirus, propionic acidemia and methylmalonic acidemia candidates.
Moderna was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Cambridge. Stéphane Bancel is chief executive officer.
How it makes money
Moderna’s main revenue source is product sales of its respiratory vaccines. COVID vaccine sales, including Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE, generated $1.8 billion in FY2025 and represented 93.1% of revenue. mRESVIA generated $8.0 million in FY2025. mNEXSPIKE was launched commercially in the third quarter of 2025 and is the company’s leading product in the U.S. retail channel.
The company also earns smaller amounts of stand-ready manufacturing revenue under long-term strategic agreements with government entities. These agreements pay Moderna to maintain manufacturing readiness, while remaining consideration can relate to product sales. Stand-ready manufacturing revenue was $80.0 million in FY2025. Other revenue includes grants, collaboration revenue, licensing and royalty revenue. Collaboration revenue has included arrangements with Merck and Vertex; licensing and royalty revenue includes an out-licensing agreement for mRNA COVID-related intellectual property in Japan.
Vaccine revenue is seasonal. Commercial spending is also more heavily weighted to the second half of the year. Product sales are recorded after deductions for estimated wholesaler chargebacks, invoice discounts, returns, government rebates and other related deductions.
FY2025 total revenue was $1.9 billion; Q2 2026 total revenue was $145 million. Management expects revenue growth of up to 10% in 2026, while assuming no revenue from the seasonal flu candidate or the flu-plus-COVID candidate during the year.
| Product or service | Revenue, FY2025 | Share | Change on the year |
|---|---|---|---|
| COVID | $1.8 billion | 93.1% | −41.3% |
| Stand-ready manufacturing revenue | $80.0 million | 4.12% | — |
| Grant revenue | $22.0 million | 1.13% | −40.5% |
| Collaboration Arrangement Including Arrangements With Affiliate | $13.0 million | 0.67% | −72.9% |
| Licensing and royalty revenue | $11.0 million | 0.57% | −73.8% |
| RSV | $8.0 million | 0.41% | −68.0% |
Customers and how it sells
Moderna sells its COVID and RSV vaccines to commercial-market customers, foreign governments and international organizations. In the United States, wholesalers and distributors are the main channel, followed by direct sales to retailers and healthcare providers. FFF Enterprises accounted for 15.0% of FY2025 revenue, Public Works and Government Services Canada accounted for 13.0%, and Cardinal Health accounted for 11.0%.
The United States generated $1.2 billion, or 61.7%, of FY2025 revenue. Rest-of-world revenue was $692.0 million, or 35.6%, and Europe generated $53.0 million, or 2.73%. The company has long-term strategic agreements with governments in the UK, Canada and Australia that support domestic manufacturing and pandemic preparedness. Its facilities in Australia and the UK became operational in 2025, and the Canadian facility supplies locally manufactured vaccine.
For Q2 2026, the revenue mix was 60% U.S. and 40% international. For the first half of 2026, it was 31% U.S. and 69% international, with long-term strategic partnerships contributing to the international share. Management expects roughly a 50-50 U.S./international revenue split for full-year 2026.
| Region | Revenue, FY2025 | Share | Change on the year |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $1.2 billion | 61.7% | −32.8% |
| Rest of world | $692.0 million | 35.6% | −18.9% |
| Europe | $53.0 million | 2.73% | −91.1% |
Suppliers and costs
Moderna operates an integrated manufacturing network, while also using third-party manufacturers and outside partners for production and packaging. It has added Moderna-built and managed facilities in the UK, Canada and Australia for local vaccine access. The Norwood, Massachusetts expansion is intended to provide end-to-end U.S. mRNA manufacturing for commercial and clinical supply; completion is targeted in the first half of 2027. Novocol Pharma performs fill-and-finish for Canadian vaccine supply.
Cost of sales includes raw materials, manufacturing personnel and facility overhead, production at Moderna sites, third-party manufacturing, formulation and packaging, shipping, third-party royalties, and inventory-related charges. Research and development covers platform work, discovery, preclinical and clinical development, manufacturing technology, digital infrastructure, personnel, clinical sites and contract research organizations.
Management expects 2026 cost of sales of $1.7 billion, including $0.9 billion related to a litigation settlement charge, R&D expense of $2.9 billion and SG&A of approximately $1 billion. It expects cash costs of approximately $4 billion, excluding stock-based compensation, depreciation and amortization.
- Revenue$1.9B
- Cost of revenue−$868.0M
- Research and development−$3.1B
- Selling, general and administrative−$1.0B
- Operating income−$3.1B
Competitive position
Moderna competes in seasonal COVID vaccines primarily with Pfizer and BioNTech, whose vaccine also uses mRNA technology. Sanofi and Novavax offer other COVID vaccines, while Pfizer has an antiviral COVID treatment that may reduce vaccine demand. In RSV, Moderna competes with Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline, which entered the U.S. market before mRESVIA. The company says its RSV sales have been minimal to date. It also expects competition in flu and other seasonal vaccine markets.
mNEXSPIKE captured approximately 24.0% of the total U.S. retail COVID vaccine market during the 2025-2026 season and approximately 34.0% among people aged 65 and older. Competition is affected by efficacy, safety and tolerability, perceptions of mRNA technology, storage and handling, distribution, regulatory approval timing, reimbursement and production costs.
Our reading: Moderna’s mRNA platform is a meaningful technology and manufacturing moat because it combines mRNA design, delivery systems and shared manufacturing processes across multiple programs, but it is not exclusive protection from competing mRNA or non-mRNA products. [item1]
Our reading: Its established commercial vaccines and global manufacturing network provide operating capabilities, while Pfizer, BioNTech, Sanofi, Novavax and GlaxoSmithKline create substantial competitive pressure in respiratory vaccines. [item1]
| Competitor | Where they compete | Threat (our reading) |
|---|---|---|
| Pfizer | COVID vaccines, COVID treatments and RSV vaccines | High |
| BioNTech | COVID vaccines | High |
| Sanofi | COVID vaccines | Medium |
| Novavax | COVID vaccines | Medium |
| GlaxoSmithKline | RSV vaccines | High |
Growth opportunities
Moderna’s stated commercial growth drivers are geographic expansion and new product launches. It expects 2026 growth from the annualized effect of long-term partnerships in the UK, Canada and Australia, along with continued mNEXSPIKE uptake in the United States. mNEXSPIKE is approved in Japan and Taiwan, and its flu-plus-COVID candidate is approved in the European Union and under review in Canada, Australia and Japan.
The company has regulatory filings under review for mRNA-1010, its seasonal flu candidate, in the United States, Europe, Canada and Australia. The U.S. FDA accepted its amended application and set an August 5, 2026 PDUFA goal date. Its flu-plus-COVID candidate, mRNA-1083, is under review in Europe and Canada. Moderna expects to expand its infectious-disease franchise to as many as six approved products if planned product launches are successful.
Pipeline development is another growth vector. Intismeran autogene is being studied with Merck in nine Phase 2 and Phase 3 studies. The propionic acidemia program reached target enrollment in a registrational study, and Moderna expects pivotal data later in 2026. The Phase 3 norovirus trial did not meet statistical criteria for early success at an interim analysis, and the company is preparing an additional cohort.
The company sizes the annual European respiratory-vaccines market at $1.8 billion.
- $18.5BFY2021
- $19.3BFY2022
- $6.8BFY2023
- $3.2BFY2024
- $1.9BFY2025
- $0.50FY2026 guidance
Structural risks
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COVID vaccine demand remains a central commercial exposure. COVID revenue was $1.8 billion in FY2025, or 93.1% of revenue, and management’s 2026 framework assumes potential future declines in COVID vaccination rates.
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Vaccine uptake depends on reimbursement, out-of-pocket affordability, efficacy, safety, duration of protection, convenience, physician prescribing, customer demand, competitive launches and public-health communications.
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Product candidates may be delayed, fail to obtain approval, show inadequate safety or efficacy, require additional studies, or produce results that do not predict later-stage outcomes. The norovirus Phase 3 study did not meet its early-success statistical criteria at interim analysis.
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Manufacturing and supply risks include difficulties with product release, shelf life, testing, storage, supply-chain management, shipping, quality and availability of clinical materials. Changes to manufacturing scale or location can delay clinical development.
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Competition can make it difficult to gain market share, particularly where competitors entered first. Moderna says its RSV sales have been minimal to date after Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline entered the U.S. market earlier.
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Large development programs can generate reportable adverse events, manufacturing events or clinical events that may lead to regulatory holds or delays and affect perceptions of multiple programs.
Bottom line
Our reading
Our reading: Moderna is a commercial vaccine business built around COVID revenue, alongside an mRNA platform intended to produce vaccines and therapeutics across infectious disease, oncology and rare diseases. Its revenue base remains concentrated in COVID vaccines, while future expansion depends on uptake of mNEXSPIKE, regulatory outcomes for respiratory products and clinical progress in the broader pipeline. [item1] [item7]
Our reading: The platform, manufacturing network and strategic-government partnerships support its ability to develop and supply products, but competition, reimbursement, changing vaccination rates and clinical-development uncertainty remain material constraints. [item1] [item1a]