| Nov 25 | Feb 26 | May 26 | Aug 26 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sell | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| total | individual payouts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2028 | ‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2027 | ‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2026 | 0.48 |
—
—
—
|
| 2025 | 0.48 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2024 | 0.48 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2023 | 0.48 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2022 | 0.48 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2021 | 0.48 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2020 | 0.48 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2019 | 0.40 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2018 | 0.32 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2017 | 0.16 |
—
—
—
—
—
|
| 2016 | 0.14 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 18.39 | 25.27 | 18.46 | 17.79 |
| Receivables | 145.48 | 151.94 | 119.37 | 103.56 |
| Inventory | 346.85 | 364.94 | 382.74 | 408.42 |
| Other | — | — | — | — |
| 514.30 | 546.14 | 522.71 | 534.84 |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payables | 73.59 | 66.34 | 54.59 | 47.92 |
| ST’ Debt | 6.40 | 6.40 | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| Other | — | — | 110.80 | — |
| 114.11 | 92.45 | 200.05 | 76.49 |
| 10y | 5y | 3y | |
| Sales | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Cash Flow | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Earnings | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
| Book Value | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 106.43 | 124.36 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 121.65 | 145.49 | 130.91 | 138.32 |
536.38
|
| ’24 | 170.56 | 190.81 | 161.46 | 180.80 |
703.63
|
| ’23 | 201.01 | 209.00 | 211.62 | 214.89 |
836.52
|
| ’22 | 195.24 | 194.98 | 201.15 | 191.00 |
782.36
|
| ’21 | 108.32 | 174.94 | 176.61 | 166.85 |
626.72
|
| ’20 | 99.08 | 92.56 | 102.96 | 100.92 |
395.52
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 6.96 | (47.69) | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 44.68 | 11.67 | 36.09 | 29.08 |
121.53
|
| ’24 | 24.62 | 4.96 | 43.93 | 28.77 |
102.28
|
| ’23 | 5.02 | 15.14 | 28.45 | 35.18 |
83.78
|
| ’22 | 22.23 | 20.79 | 29.23 | 16.68 |
88.94
|
| ’21 | 16.99 | 30.46 | 23.33 | 17.48 |
88.26
|
| ’20 | 0.54 | 5.44 | 23.47 | 23.80 |
53.26
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 1.23 | (52.18) | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 24.76 | (0.56) | 27.57 | 24.27 |
76.04
|
| ’24 | (2.40) | (1.41) | 24.48 | 10.44 |
31.10
|
| ’23 | (11.22) | 1.32 | 16.44 | 21.97 |
28.52
|
| ’22 | 11.59 | 13.34 | 18.10 | 0.58 |
43.61
|
| ’21 | 4.93 | 24.19 | 4.41 | 7.35 |
40.87
|
| ’20 | (4.74) | 1.23 | 20.14 | 19.82 |
36.46
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | (6.30) | 0.55 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | (0.14) | 0.67 | 0.71 | (6.22) |
(4.99)
|
| ’24 | 0.92 | 1.43 | 1.07 | (1.91) |
1.56
|
| ’23 | 1.39 | 1.44 | 0.58 | 1.39 |
4.80
|
| ’22 | 1.69 | 1.15 | 1.06 | 1.01 |
4.92
|
| ’21 | 0.90 | 0.91 | 1.08 | 1.40 |
4.34
|
| ’20 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.61 | 0.69 |
2.37
|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 73.02 | 82.60 | 38.24 | 21.67 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | 125.74 | 124.96 | 101.69 | 40.26 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 690 | 705 | 660 | 617 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.13 | 1.19 | 1.07 | 0.87 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 782.36 | 836.52 | 703.63 | 536.38 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 32.38% | 36.43% | 40.69% | 37.18% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 140.17 | 141.75 | 68.44 | (100.35) | — | — | — |
EBT
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 17.92% | 16.94% | 9.73% | (18.71%) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
EBT Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 108.87 | 107.13 | 34.47 | (107.83) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Net Income
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 21.46 | 22.11 | 95.74 | 176.71 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 35.56 | 37.92 | 31.96 | 25.11 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | 4.94 | 4.82 | 1.56 | (4.99) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
Earnings/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 4.04 | 3.80 | 4.65 | 5.69 | — | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (2.06) | (2.51) | (3.23) | (2.13) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Capex/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.98 | 1.29 | 1.41 | 3.56 | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 33.89 | 38.49 | 37.82 | 33.55 | — | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 22.00 | 22.06 | 22.02 | 21.36 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Shares
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 20.86 | 20.35 | 26.07 | 0.00 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
PE Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.89 | 2.59 | 1.23 | 0.97 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PS Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 3.03 | 2.55 | 1.04 | 0.72 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PB Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 3.12 | 2.91 | 1.66 | 1.40 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
EV/Sales
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 56.06 | 85.33 | 37.46 | 9.90 | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 88.94 | 83.78 | 102.28 | 121.53 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (45.32) | (55.27) | (71.18) | (45.49) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Capex
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 43.61 | 28.52 | 31.10 | 76.04 | — | — | — |
FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 348.79 | 400.19 | 453.69 | 322.66 | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 230.34 | 287.25 | 323.54 | 252.32 | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 182.45 | 268.86 | 298.27 | 233.86 | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 745.64 | 849.07 | 832.54 | 716.79 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 9.87% | 8.34% | 2.45% | (8.06%) | — | — | — |
ROA
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 10.03% | 8.31% | 4.11% | (6.22%) | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 15.63% | 13.34% | 4.08% | (13.75%) | — | — | — |
ROE
|
MGP Ingredients (MGPI) rode the premium bourbon and whiskey boom to explosive growth, with revenue surging 163% from $318 million in 2016 to $837 million in 2023, supercharged by the Lux Row acquisition. But the party’s over: 2024 revenue cratered 16% to $704 million, with analysts forecasting a brutal 25% drop to $531 million in 2025 amid inventory gluts, softening demand, and Big Alcohol competition. Gross margins hit 40.7% thanks to pricing power, yet earnings tell a grimmer tale—EPS plunged 68% to $1.56, ROE collapsed to 4.1%, and free cash flow’s uptick masks deeper fragility.
Debt ballooned to $324 million (42% of equity), interest coverage strains under revenue cliffs, and insiders are fleeing: $26.8 million in sells versus peanuts in buys since early 2025, signaling pipeline doubts no one on the inside wants to ignore. The stock’s 75% wipeout from $124 peaks looks like a healthy purge, trading “cheap” at 1.2x sales—but Wall Street’s 36% upside call bets on a V-shaped recovery that ignores ag volatility, consumer belt-tightening, and capex hangovers.
This contrarian take spots the real hangover risks in MGPI’s peaking cycle: don’t buy the rebound hype without proof of spirits demand revival. Insiders know the barrels best— their exodus screams caution amid leverage and contraction.
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