| Nov 25 | Feb 26 | May 26 | Aug 26 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sell | — | 8 | — | — | 6 | — | — | 11 | 1 | — | 11 | 3 |
| total | individual payouts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2024 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2023 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2022 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2021 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2020 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2018 | ‡‡‡ |
|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2,013.60 | 887.00 | 877.10 | 2,738.40 |
| Receivables | 246.10 | 194.70 | 250.00 | 520.30 |
| Inventory | 408.60 | 398.40 | 470.10 | 691.60 |
| Other | 103.00 | — | — | — |
| 2,777.90 | 1,590.10 | 1,717.30 | 4,161.90 |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payables | 169.40 | 126.30 | 225.20 | 567.40 |
| ST’ Debt | 311.60 | — | 10.60 | 1,596.90 |
| Other | 47.80 | 41.10 | 53.10 | 91.50 |
| 633.80 | 269.30 | 392.80 | 2,480.50 |
| 10y | 5y | 3y | |
| Sales | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Cash Flow | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Earnings | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
| Book Value | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Sep | Dec | Mar | Jun | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | — | — | — | — |
—
|
| ’26 | 533.80 | 665.50 | 808.40 | 1,006.30 |
3,014.00
|
| ’25 | 336.90 | 402.20 | 425.20 | 480.70 |
1,645.00
|
| ’24 | 317.60 | 366.80 | 366.50 | 308.30 |
1,359.20
|
| ’23 | 506.80 | 506.00 | 383.40 | 370.80 |
1,767.00
|
| ’22 | 448.40 | 446.70 | 395.40 | 422.10 |
1,712.60
|
| ’21 | 452.40 | 478.80 | 419.50 | 392.10 |
1,742.80
|
| Sep | Dec | Mar | Jun | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | — | — | — | — |
—
|
| ’26 | 57.90 | 126.70 | 203.80 | 363.00 |
751.40
|
| ’25 | 39.60 | 24.30 | (1.60) | 64.00 |
126.30
|
| ’24 | (2.30) | (1.50) | (7.00) | 35.50 |
24.70
|
| ’23 | 20.80 | 94.90 | 14.90 | 49.20 |
179.80
|
| ’22 | 61.90 | 206.50 | 76.60 | 114.30 |
459.30
|
| ’21 | 104.70 | 128.50 | 381.30 | 124.20 |
738.70
|
| Sep | Dec | Mar | Jun | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | — | — | — | — |
—
|
| ’26 | (18.30) | 43.20 | 118.60 | 199.00 |
342.50
|
| ’25 | (34.30) | (15.90) | (64.30) | 10.10 |
(104.40)
|
| ’24 | (60.10) | (32.30) | (26.00) | 6.90 |
(111.50)
|
| ’23 | (2.10) | 55.10 | (13.80) | 12.40 |
51.60
|
| ’22 | 49.90 | 180.50 | 58.40 | 85.70 |
374.50
|
| ’21 | 78.40 | 104.30 | 365.40 | 119.10 |
667.20
|
| Sep | Dec | Mar | Jun | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | — | — | — | — |
—
|
| ’26 | 0.05 | 0.89 | 1.50 | (84.65) |
(92.96)
|
| ’25 | (1.21) | (0.88) | (0.64) | 2.96 |
0.37
|
| ’24 | (1.02) | (1.47) | (1.88) | (3.72) |
(8.12)
|
| ’23 | (0.01) | (0.46) | (0.57) | (0.88) |
(1.93)
|
| ’22 | 1.08 | 0.75 | 0.35 | 0.49 |
2.68
|
| ’21 | 0.86 | 1.06 | 2.85 | 0.28 |
5.07
|
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 48.73 | 35.35 | 38.29 | 45.65 | 317.44 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 108.90 | 65.16 | 96.25 | 401.60 | 1,085.68 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 6,815 | 7,500 | 7,257 | 10,562 | 13,757 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 0.22 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,712.60 | 1,767.00 | 1,359.20 | 1,645.00 | 3,014.00 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 46.05% | 32.20% | 18.50% | 27.96% | 41.67% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 235.10 | (102.40) | (405.70) | (172.10) | (7,172.80) | — | — | — |
EBT
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 13.73% | (5.80%) | (29.85%) | (10.46%) | (237.98%) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
EBT Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 198.90 | (131.60) | (546.50) | 25.90 | (6,935.10) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Net Income
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 239.50 | 297.70 | 313.20 | 259.70 | 270.80 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 24.05 | 25.87 | 20.20 | 23.84 | 40.40 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | 2.79 | (1.93) | (8.12) | 0.38 | (92.96) | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Earnings/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 6.45 | 2.63 | 0.37 | 1.83 | 10.07 | — | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (1.19) | (1.88) | (2.02) | (3.34) | (5.48) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Capex/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 5.26 | 0.76 | (1.66) | (1.51) | 4.59 | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 26.33 | 19.85 | 14.22 | 16.44 | 62.25 | — | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 71.20 | 68.30 | 67.30 | 69.00 | 74.60 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Shares
|
| ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 28.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 288.06 | 0.00 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | — |
PE Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 3.30 | 2.19 | 2.55 | 3.99 | 21.24 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PS Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 3.02 | 2.86 | 3.62 | 5.78 | 13.78 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PB Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.91 | 2.64 | 3.97 | 5.02 | 20.87 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
EV/Sales
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 13.30 | 90.56 | (50.21) | (79.07) | 183.68 | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 459.30 | 179.80 | 24.70 | 126.30 | 751.40 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (84.80) | (128.20) | (136.20) | (230.70) | (408.90) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Capex
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 374.50 | 51.60 | (111.50) | (104.40) | 342.50 | — | — | — |
FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2,422.70 | 2,144.10 | 1,320.80 | 1,324.50 | 1,681.40 | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,876.00 | 2,811.60 | 2,503.20 | 2,573.20 | 1,637.40 | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (673.00) | 798.00 | 1,616.20 | 1,696.10 | (1,101.00) | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,875.00 | 1,355.80 | 957.30 | 1,134.70 | 4,643.90 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 5.16% | (2.99%) | (12.76%) | 0.64% | (120.34%) | — | — | — |
ROA
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 15.77% | (3.36%) | (10.54%) | (3.98%) | 9.26% | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 10.34% | (8.15%) | (47.25%) | 2.48% | (240.03%) | — | — | — |
ROE
|
Lumentum Holdings (LITE) offers compelling exposure to photonic technologies fueling AI data centers and cloud networking, but its history underscores the perils of cyclical volatility in optics. After a decade of growth driven by mergers, 3D sensing, and high-speed transceivers—peaking at $1.76 billion in revenue and stock highs over $112—recent years delivered sharp reversals: 2024 revenue fell 23% to $1.36 billion, gross margins cratered to 18.5%, and net losses hit $547 million amid inventory gluts and macro pressures. Ballooning debt to $2.5 billion and negative ROIC signal leverage risks and execution challenges on a $1.13 billion equity base.
Balance sheet resilience persists with $1.3 billion in working capital, supporting R&D into silicon photonics, while routine insider selling at peaks (over $21 million in 2025) reflects diversification rather than distress. Analyst forecasts tempt with explosive upside—revenue tripling to $5.8 billion by 2028, EPS surging 3,400% to $13.28, and ROE rebounding to 21%—powered by 1.6T optics and NVIDIA-linked AI demand. Yet forward multiples like 53x 2027 PE demand flawless delivery amid debt servicing and China exposure.
For risk-averse investors, LITE’s asymmetric potential hinges on navigating these downside traps; current 4x PS looks stretched versus historical norms, but projected FCF recovery could justify a premium if cycles turn. The full analysis dissects this high-stakes rebound.
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