Pricing Log in Create free account
Friday 6 November 2026 Export LAD’s income statement to Excel — free account

Lithia Motors, Inc.

LAD Consumer Cyclical Auto & Truck Dealerships

Lithia Motors, Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $37.6 billion, up 4.00% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+2.80%
EPS
+53.5%
Free cash flow
+39.8%
Total debt
+4.53%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

316.26 0.62 +0.20%
Market cap
$6.8B
P/E
9.1×
Fwd P/E
8.2×
Dividend yield
0.99%
F-score
3/9
Altman Z
2.40
Beneish M
−2.45
Dividend safety
51/100
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios
Segments Valuation Filings

Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $316.26 the price implies revenue of $16.36 billion by year ten, growing −8.1% a year, at a 10% free-cash-flow margin then.

Free cash flow after share-based pay grew −76.2% a year over the last five years.

Price implies
−8.1%
Last 5 years, reported
−76.2%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ free cash flow after share-based pay at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
−8.1% a year for ten years
$316.26
today’s price
Its base case
16.9% a year for five years, then 10.2%
$4,646.22
1369.1% above today’s price

Both are growth in revenue, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Lithia Motors, Inc.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Revenue and margin
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in revenue. It usually slows as the company matures.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

Diluted shares outstanding. Net debt, under Advanced inputs, is taken off before dividing.

Advanced inputs
Free cash flow Revenue and margin
negative is net cash
new shares the cash flow does not pay for

Against Lithia Motors, Inc.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 1.28 × equity premium 4.5% = 10.1% cost of equity; weighted, 10.1%.

Use 10.1%
Equity value $108.37b ▲ above market cap $7.38b
Base case value per share $4,646.22 equity value ÷ 23.33m shares
Current price $316.26 market price per share
Above today’s price 1369.1% upside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$27.33b 10 years of cash to equity+$90.36b terminal value−$9.32b net debt=$108.37b equity value÷23.33m shares=$4,646.22 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Auto & Truck Dealerships).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 9.10× 9.00× 9.99× 9% below 15.49× 41% below
P/FCF — 74.40× 60.89× — 10.17× —
P/B 1.04× 1.26× 1.73× 40% below 1.45× 28% below
EV/EBITDA 8.15× 7.78× 7.86× 4% above 8.57× 5% below
EV/Sales 0.43× 0.45× 0.45× 6% below 0.47× 10% below
P/E P/FCF P/B EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
5.67×8.62×11.56×14.51×10Y avg 9.99×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

LAD trades at 9.10× P/E, against a 10-year average of 9.99× (range 4.56×–15.22×). That is cheaper than 56% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $347.25 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.