Home BancShares, Inc.

HOMB Financial Banks Regional

Home BancShares, Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $1.5 billion, up 0.61% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+1.68%
EPS
+3.17%
Free cash flow
+20.3%
Total debt
−36.1%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

30.12 0.33 −1.08%
Market cap
$6.0B
P/E
12.3×
Fwd P/E
11.9×
Dividend yield
2.86%
F-score
8/9
Altman Z
n/a
Beneish M
n/a
Dividend safety
n/a

Home BancShares, Inc. (HOMB) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $30.12 the price implies 32.5% a year of dividend growth, at a 9.0% cost of equity.

The dividend a share grew 11.4% a year over the last ten years, 8.7% over the last five. The price asks for about three times its ten-year rate. Return on equity averaged 10.9% over ten years; the price implies 11.1% for good.

In December 2017 the price assumed 20.6% a year; Home BancShares, Inc. went on to grow the dividend a share 14.7% a year to FY2025.

Price implies
32.5%
Last 5 years, reported
8.7%
Last 10 years, reported
11.4%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ the dividend a share at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
32.5% a year for ten years
$30.12
today’s price
Its base case
11.4% a year for five years, then 6.8%
$5.48
81.8% below today’s price

Both are growth in the dividend a share, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Home BancShares, Inc.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Dividends
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in the dividend. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies the dividend a share growing 32.5% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

The model is a share’s own: no debt to take off and no shares to divide among.

Advanced inputs

Against Home BancShares, Inc.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.73 × equity premium 4.5% = 7.6% cost of equity; weighted, 7.6%.

Use 7.6%
Base case value per share $5.48 ten years discounted, and what follows
Current price $30.12 market price per share
Below today’s price 81.8% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$2.19 10 years of dividends+$3.29 terminal value=$5.48 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Banks Regional).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 12.34× 13.02× 13.87× 11% below 12.02× 3% above
P/FCF 13.69× 12.96× 13.64× 0% above 10.60× 29% above
P/B 1.33× 1.33× 1.34× 1% below 1.23× 8% above
EV/Sales — 3.61× 4.81× — 3.90× —
1.18×1.31×1.45×1.58×10Y avg 1.34×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

HOMB trades at 1.33× P/B, against a 10-year average of 1.34× (range 1.21×–1.57×). That is dearer than 56% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $30.38 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.