Alphabet Inc.

GOOG Communication Services Internet Content & Information

Alphabet Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $402.8 billion, up 15.1% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+24.7%
EPS
−26.0%
Free cash flow
−137.1%
Total debt
+479.0%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

282.56 4.74 −1.65%
Market cap
$3.45T
P/E
14.6×
Fwd P/E
—
Dividend yield
0.30%
F-score
7/9
Altman Z
15.03
Beneish M
−2.64
Dividend safety
85/100

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $282.56 the price implies revenue of $4,408.83 billion by year ten, growing 25.1% a year, at a 10% free-cash-flow margin then.

Free cash flow after share-based pay grew 13.8% a year over the last ten years, 4.8% over the last five.

In December 2017 the price assumed 15.2% a year; Alphabet Inc. went on to grow free cash flow after share-based pay 14.6% a year to FY2025.

Price implies
25.1%
Last 5 years, reported
4.8%
Last 10 years, reported
13.8%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ free cash flow after share-based pay at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
25.1% a year for ten years
$282.56
today’s price
Its base case
18.3% a year for five years, then 11.0%
$129.39
54.2% below today’s price

Both are growth in revenue, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Alphabet Inc.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Revenue and margin
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in revenue. It usually slows as the company matures.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

Diluted shares outstanding. Net debt, under Advanced inputs, is taken off before dividing.

Advanced inputs
negative is net cash
new shares the cash flow does not pay for

Against Alphabet Inc.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 1.21 × equity premium 4.5% = 9.7% cost of equity; weighted, 9.7%.

Use 9.7%
Equity value $1.70t ▼ below market cap $3.71t
Base case value per share $129.39 equity value ÷ 13.12b shares
Current price $282.56 market price per share
Below today’s price 54.2% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$333.45b 10 years of cash to equity+$1.22t terminal value+$140.00b net cash=$1.70t equity value÷13.12b shares=$129.39 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Internet Content & Information).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 14.57× 22.03× 27.39× 47% below 12.38× 18% above
P/FCF 175.37× 60.88× 49.22× 256% above 10.76× 1530% above
P/B 5.25× 6.48× 5.89× 11% below 1.24× 325% above
EV/EBITDA 17.97× 17.98× 18.35× 2% below 10.74× 67% above
EV/Sales 7.05× 6.39× 6.01× 17% above 1.20× 487% above
4.27×5.82×7.37×8.92×10Y avg 6.01×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

GOOG trades at 7.05× EV/Sales, against a 10-year average of 6.01× (range 3.79×–9.24×). That is dearer than 89% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $242.36 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.