First Citizens BancShares, Inc.

FCNCA Financial Banks Regional

First Citizens BancShares, Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $14.5 billion, down 3.09% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+0.11%
EPS
+31.1%
Free cash flow
+28.7%
Total debt
−14.9%

Quarter to June 2026, against a year earlier

2,306.71 25.14 −1.08%
Market cap
$25.5B
P/E
12.3×
Fwd P/E
11.9×
Dividend yield
0.36%
F-score
6/9
Altman Z
n/a
Beneish M
n/a
Dividend safety
n/a

First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $2,306.71 the price implies 33.3% a year of dividend growth, at a 9.0% cost of equity.

The dividend a share grew 23.5% a year over the last ten years, 32.9% over the last five. The price asks for close to its ten-year rate. Return on equity averaged 18.5% over ten years; the price implies 10.4% for good.

In December 2017 the price assumed 49.3% a year; First Citizens BancShares, Inc. went on to grow the dividend a share 27.8% a year to FY2025.

Price implies
33.3%
Last 5 years, reported
32.9%
Last 10 years, reported
23.5%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ the dividend a share at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
33.3% a year for ten years
$2,306.71
today’s price
Its base case
20.0% a year for five years, then 12.0%
$671.13
70.9% below today’s price

Both are growth in the dividend a share, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record First Citizens BancShares, Inc.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Dividends
the four quarters to June 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in the dividend. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies the dividend a share growing 33.3% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

The model is a share’s own: no debt to take off and no shares to divide among.

Advanced inputs

Against First Citizens BancShares, Inc.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.60 × equity premium 4.5% = 7.0% cost of equity; weighted, 7.0%.

Use 7.0%
Base case value per share $671.13 ten years discounted, and what follows
Current price $2,306.71 market price per share
Below today’s price 70.9% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$232.78 10 years of dividends+$438.35 terminal value=$671.13 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Banks Regional).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 12.33× 9.88× 11.60× 6% above 12.02× 3% above
P/FCF 10.64× 9.67× 13.37× 20% below 10.60× 0% above
P/B 1.32× 1.29× 1.42× 7% below 1.23× 7% above
EV/Sales — 1.95× 2.12× — 3.90× —
3.50×7.12×10.74×14.36×10Y avg 11.60×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

FCNCA trades at 12.33× P/E, against a 10-year average of 11.60× (range 1.83×–15.40×). That is dearer than 56% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $2,170.11 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.