First Citizens BancShares, Inc.

FCNCA Financial Banks Regional

First Citizens BancShares, Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $14.5 billion, down 3.09% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+0.05%
EPS
+18.9%
Free cash flow
+28.7%
Total debt
−36.3%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

2,278.83 25.89 −1.12%
Market cap
$25.5B
P/E
11.8×
Fwd P/E
11.9×
Dividend yield
0.36%
F-score
6/9
Altman Z
n/a
Beneish M
n/a
Dividend safety
n/a

First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $2,278.83 the price implies 31.6% a year of dividend growth, at a 9.0% cost of equity.

The dividend a share grew 23.5% a year over the last ten years, 32.9% over the last five. The price asks for close to its ten-year rate. Return on equity averaged 18.5% over ten years; the price implies 10.2% for good.

In December 2017 the price assumed 49.3% a year; First Citizens BancShares, Inc. went on to grow the dividend a share 27.8% a year to FY2025.

Price implies
31.6%
Last 5 years, reported
32.9%
Last 10 years, reported
23.5%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ the dividend a share at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
31.6% a year for ten years
$2,278.83
today’s price
Its base case
20.0% a year for five years, then 12.0%
$746.11
67.3% below today’s price

Both are growth in the dividend a share, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record First Citizens BancShares, Inc.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Dividends
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in the dividend. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies the dividend a share growing 31.6% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

The model is a share’s own: no debt to take off and no shares to divide among.

Advanced inputs

Against First Citizens BancShares, Inc.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.60 × equity premium 4.5% = 7.0% cost of equity; weighted, 7.0%.

Use 7.0%
Base case value per share $746.11 ten years discounted, and what follows
Current price $2,278.83 market price per share
Below today’s price 67.3% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$258.79 10 years of dividends+$487.32 terminal value=$746.11 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Banks Regional).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 11.82× 9.78× 11.55× 2% above 12.02× 2% below
P/FCF 10.43× 9.63× 13.35× 22% below 10.60× 2% below
P/B 1.33× 1.29× 1.42× 6% below 1.23× 8% above
EV/Sales — 1.95× 2.12× — 3.90× —
1.07×1.32×1.57×1.82×10Y avg 1.42×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

FCNCA trades at 1.33× P/B, against a 10-year average of 1.42× (range 1.03×–1.85×). That is cheaper than 67% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $2,429.94 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.