| Nov 25 | Feb 26 | May 26 | Aug 26 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sell | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| total | individual payouts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2028 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2027 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2026 | 10.34 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2025 | 10.16 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2024 | 7.35 |
—
—
—
|
| 2023 | 11.55 |
—
—
—
—
—
|
| 2022 | 8.80 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2021 | 8.36 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2020 | 8.31 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2019 | 7.80 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2018 | 7.44 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2017 | 7.00 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2016 | 6.40 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 400.33 | 75.85 | 85.59 | 66.34 |
| Receivables | — | — | — | — |
| Inventory | — | — | — | — |
| Other | — | — | — | — |
| 574.96 | 282.55 | 227.18 | 162.68 |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payables | 176.40 | 212.75 | 221.35 | 270.44 |
| ST’ Debt | — | — | — | — |
| Other | — | — | — | — |
| 176.40 | 212.75 | 221.35 | 270.44 |
| 10y | 5y | 3y | |
| Sales | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Cash Flow | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Earnings | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Book Value | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 484.76 | 489.05 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 464.58 | 469.83 | 473.30 | 479.63 |
1,887.35
|
| ’24 | 426.93 | 442.36 | 450.70 | 454.47 |
1,774.45
|
| ’23 | 412.42 | 416.04 | 419.18 | 421.75 |
1,669.40
|
| ’22 | 381.91 | 399.98 | 409.75 | 415.18 |
1,606.81
|
| ’21 | 355.13 | 350.98 | 362.86 | 371.60 |
1,440.56
|
| ’20 | 392.37 | 370.50 | 370.81 | 362.07 |
1,495.75
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 287.17 | 254.06 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 281.50 | 216.13 | 342.59 | 234.20 |
1,074.42
|
| ’24 | 314.86 | 218.93 | 316.20 | 218.32 |
1,068.31
|
| ’23 | 276.92 | 211.41 | 288.06 | 203.67 |
980.06
|
| ’22 | 315.14 | 194.40 | 299.19 | 166.91 |
975.65
|
| ’21 | 195.27 | 232.81 | 271.81 | 205.38 |
905.26
|
| ’20 | 266.93 | 159.18 | 227.33 | 149.67 |
803.11
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 242.32 | 182.74 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 14.47 | 151.00 | 295.85 | 7.54 |
468.86
|
| ’24 | (79.61) | 36.30 | 56.46 | 152.16 |
165.31
|
| ’23 | 330.17 | 131.42 | 233.56 | 138.39 |
833.53
|
| ’22 | 265.28 | 120.93 | 202.93 | 235.00 |
824.14
|
| ’21 | 391.81 | 157.55 | 176.97 | 90.26 |
816.58
|
| ’20 | (252.50) | 323.47 | 207.22 | 155.81 |
434.01
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 1.65 | 0.97 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 3.16 | 3.44 | 2.56 | 1.25 |
10.40
|
| ’24 | 4.25 | 1.45 | 1.84 | 4.00 |
11.54
|
| ’23 | 2.38 | 1.55 | 1.36 | 1.02 |
6.32
|
| ’22 | 1.12 | 0.87 | 1.43 | 2.86 |
6.27
|
| ’21 | 2.59 | 1.00 | 1.82 | 2.10 |
7.51
|
| ’20 | 4.76 | 1.29 | 1.13 | 1.47 |
8.69
|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 205.24 | 195.03 | 223.06 | 243.25 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 363.36 | 252.85 | 317.73 | 316.29 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,772 | 1,750 | 1,715 | 1,689 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.91 | 0.95 | 1.03 | 1.12 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,606.81 | 1,669.40 | 1,774.45 | 1,887.35 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 68.39% | 68.17% | 68.00% | 67.78% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 432.99 | 430.71 | 811.31 | 702.77 | — | — | — |
EBT
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 26.95% | 25.80% | 45.72% | 37.24% | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
EBT Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 432.99 | 430.71 | 811.31 | 702.77 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Net Income
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 546.03 | 555.35 | 588.02 | 614.70 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 24.69 | 25.98 | 27.63 | 29.32 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | 6.27 | 6.32 | 11.55 | 10.40 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Earnings/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 14.99 | 15.25 | 16.63 | 16.69 | — | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (2.33) | (2.28) | (14.06) | (9.41) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Capex/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 12.66 | 12.97 | 2.57 | 7.28 | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 90.58 | 87.06 | 89.06 | 88.67 | — | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 65.08 | 64.25 | 64.23 | 64.38 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Shares
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 33.65 | 39.60 | 24.71 | 25.14 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
PE Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 8.56 | 9.62 | 10.33 | 8.93 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PS Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 2.33 | 2.87 | 3.20 | 2.95 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PB Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 12.43 | 13.10 | 14.01 | 12.48 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
EV/Sales
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 24.23 | 26.23 | 150.38 | 50.25 | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 975.65 | 980.06 | 1,068.31 | 1,074.42 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (151.51) | (146.53) | (902.99) | (605.56) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — |
Capex
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 824.14 | 833.53 | 165.31 | 468.86 | — | — | — |
FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (19.73) | 398.55 | 69.81 | 5.83 | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 6,261.18 | 6,205.74 | 6,601.62 | 6,800.27 | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 6,218.50 | 5,805.40 | 6,525.77 | 6,714.68 | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 5,895.12 | 5,593.98 | 5,720.39 | 5,708.63 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 3.22% | 3.28% | 5.86% | 5.13% | — | — | — |
ROA
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 3.07% | 3.20% | 3.59% | 4.52% | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 6.76% | 7.06% | 13.11% | 11.72% | — | — | — |
ROE
|
Essex Property Trust (ESS), the West Coast multifamily REIT darling, faces growing skepticism despite its reputation as a housing shortage safe haven. Revenue has grown steadily at a 5% CAGR to $1.77 billion in 2024, driven by premium markets like California and Seattle, but gross margins have slipped to 68%, signaling rising costs amid supply surges and potential rent controls. While 2024 delivered an 89% net income surge to $811 million and doubled ROE to 13.1%, this “profitability spike” masks a brutal free cash flow collapse—down 80% to $165 million—due to explosive capex spending, with EPS projected to halve to $5.81 by 2026.
The balance sheet adds pressure: debt up 10% to $6.6 billion, equity down 9%, inflating PB to 3.2x and EV/FCF to an unsustainable 150x, especially as interest costs bite post-rate hikes. Valuation looks stretched at 24.7x PE (43x forward), trading 13% below consensus targets yet lagging broader markets amid REIT sensitivity.
Insider selling hit $7.6 million in March 2025 with no buys, hinting at peaks ahead of decelerating earnings, multifamily oversupply, and lingering rate risks. While bulls eye housing tailwinds, this contrarian dissection uncovers complacency—potentially 15-20% downside—urging a trim or wait for deeper dips. Dive into the full analysis for the numbers that challenge the hype.
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