Essent Group Ltd.

ESNT Financial Insurance Specialty

Essent Group Ltd.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $1.3 billion, up 1.45% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+13.6%
EPS
+7.18%
Free cash flow
+3.88%
Total debt
+0.27%

Quarter to June 2026, against a year earlier

67.04 1.56 −2.27%
Market cap
$6.2B
P/E
9.5×
Fwd P/E
8.8×
Dividend yield
1.98%
F-score
5/9
Altman Z
n/a
Beneish M
n/a
Dividend safety
n/a

Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $67.04 the price implies 18.4% a year of dividend growth, at a 9.0% cost of equity.

The dividend a share grew 13.3% a year over the last five years. The price asks for close to its five-year rate. Return on equity averaged 17.2% over ten years; the price implies 9.5% for good.

In December 2019 the price assumed 45.4% a year; Essent Group Ltd. went on to grow the dividend a share 6.4% a year to FY2025.

Price implies
18.4%
Last 5 years, reported
13.3%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ the dividend a share at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
18.4% a year for ten years
$67.04
today’s price
Its base case
13.3% a year for five years, then 8.0%
$38.42
42.7% below today’s price

Both are growth in the dividend a share, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Essent Group Ltd.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Dividends
the four quarters to June 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in the dividend. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies the dividend a share growing 18.4% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

The model is a share’s own: no debt to take off and no shares to divide among.

Advanced inputs

Against Essent Group Ltd.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.70 × equity premium 4.5% = 7.4% cost of equity; weighted, 7.4%.

Use 7.4%
Base case value per share $38.42 ten years discounted, and what follows
Current price $67.04 market price per share
Below today’s price 42.7% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$14.86 10 years of dividends+$23.57 terminal value=$38.42 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Insurance Specialty).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 9.49× 7.97× 8.55× 11% above 9.49× 0% above
P/FCF 7.54× 7.30× 7.52× 0% above 8.44× 11% below
P/B 1.10× 1.06× 1.29× 15% below 1.23× 11% below
EV/EBITDA — 6.84× 7.75× — 3.38× —
EV/Sales — 5.47× 5.79× — 3.90× —
5.56×7.30×9.05×10.79×10Y avg 8.55×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

ESNT trades at 9.49× P/E, against a 10-year average of 8.55× (range 5.10×–11.11×). That is dearer than 78% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $60.40 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.