Friday 6 November 2026 Export AA’s income statement to Excel — free account

Alcoa

Alcoa’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $12.8 billion, up 7.87% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue: +23.7%
EPS: +108.0%
Free cash flow: +854.0%
Total debt: +87.0%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

Dividend growth 5 yrs

39.60 1.18 +3.07%

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Market cap: $10.1B
P/E: 6.6×
Fwd P/E: 6.3×
Dividend yield: 1.04%
F-score: 7/9
Altman Z: 1.75
Beneish M: −2.41
Dividend safety: 78/100

Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis Segments Valuation Filings

Alcoa (AA) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $39.60 the price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing −0.3% a year for ten years.

Free cash flow after share-based pay grew −24.6% a year over the last five years. The price asks for 24.4 points a year more than its five-year rate. The industry’s median company is priced for 7.9%.

In December 2017 the price assumed −0.7% a year; Alcoa went on to grow free cash flow after share-based pay −8.1% a year to FY2025.

Price implies: −0.3%
Last 5 years, reported: −24.6%
Industry median implies: 7.9%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ free cash flow after share-based pay at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF

The price needs: −0.3% a year for ten years; $39.60; today’s price
Its base case: −10.0% a year for five years, then −6.0%; $21.09; 46.7% below today’s price

Both are growth in free cash flow after share-based pay, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Alcoa’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

1 · Cash flow to equity

Free cash flow (TTM, $ billions)the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings, before share-based pay

Subtract share-based pay ($0.05 billion)

Growth, yrs 1–5 (%)

Growth, yrs 6–10 (%)

Yearly growth in cash flow. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing −0.3% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity (%)

Terminal growth (%)

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

Shares (billions)

Current price ($)

Diluted shares outstanding. Net debt, under Advanced inputs, is taken off before dividing.

Advanced inputs

Free cash flow Revenue and margin

Value per share Expected return

Use the analysts’ consensus for years 1–3 (61.0%, 44.8%, 0.7%)

How the model ends

Net debt ($ billions)negative is net cash

Dilution a year (%)new shares the cash flow does not pay for

Margin of safety (%)

Against Alcoa’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 1.84 × equity premium 4.5% = 12.6% cost of equity; weighted, 12.6%.

Use 12.6%

Equity value $5.58b ▼ below market cap $10.48b

Base case value per share $21.09 equity value ÷ 264.75m shares

Current price $39.60 market price per share

Below today’s price 46.7% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$3.55b 10 years of cash to equity+$2.45b terminal value−$414.00m net debt=$5.58b equity value÷264.75m shares=$21.09 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Aluminum).

Multiple	Current	5Y avg	10Y avg	vs 10Y avg	Industry median	vs industry
P/E	6.61×	22.54×	22.54×	71% below	18.98×	65% below
P/FCF	11.32×	48.81×	42.49×	73% below	17.73×	36% below
P/B	1.24×	1.46×	1.27×	3% below	1.71×	28% below
EV/EBITDA	3.89×	11.49×	8.54×	54% below	9.15×	57% below
EV/Sales	0.74×	0.80×	0.72×	3% above	1.76×	58% below

P/E P/FCF P/B EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

AA trades at 0.74× EV/Sales, against a 10-year average of 0.72× (range 0.42×–1.14×). That is dearer than 56% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $38.56 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.