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Alcoa

AA Basic Materials Aluminum

Alcoa’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $12.8 billion, up 7.87% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+23.7%
EPS
+108.0%
Free cash flow
+854.0%
Total debt
+87.0%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

38.60 1.98 −4.88%
Market cap
$10.1B
P/E
6.6×
Fwd P/E
6.3×
Dividend yield
1.04%
F-score
7/9
Altman Z
1.75
Beneish M
−2.41
Dividend safety
78/100
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios
Segments Valuation Filings

Revenue by segment Fiscal 2025

  • Aluminum
  • Alumina
  • Other

Every year since 2015 →

Insider Decisions last twelve months

Sold, $m 1.35
Trades a month
Jan 26 Apr 26 Jul 26 Oct 26
Buy — — — — — — — — — — — —
Sell — — — — — — — 1 3 — — —
Insider Ownership 0.55%

Capital & Financial Ratios $m

Size
Market Cap 10,140.00
Revenue ttm 14,312.00
Net income ttm 1,510.00
Free cash flow ttm 900.00
Net debt Q 414.00
Valuation
P/E 6.61
Forward P/E 6.26
Price / sales 0.71
Forward P/S Powerpack
Price / FCF 11.32
Price / book 1.24
Financial health
Current ratio Q 2.31 (at or above 1.5: strong)
Debt / equity Q 0.58
Interest coverage Q 13.88
Growth
Revenue growth Q +23.67% (above 0%: growing)
Operating income growth Q +169.90% (above 0%: growing)
EPS, this year +82.66% (at or above 15%: strong)
EPS, next year A −20.39% (below 0%: weak)
Revenue, next year A +14.34% (at or above 10%: strong)
EPS, past 5 yrs —
EPS, next 5 yrs A +9.33%

Green and red mark values outside typical ranges; (Q) is the latest quarter, (A) analysts’ estimates. How we judge →

Valuation vs history

EV/Sales, ten years
EV/Sales is 0.7×, against a ten-year median of 0.7×; over the ten years it ranged from 0.2× in 2020 to 1.7× in 2026.
P/E against its own 10 years 0.26%
10-year low 10-year high
P/S against its own 10 years 67.11%
10-year low 10-year high
P/B against its own 10 years 61.13%
10-year low 10-year high
EV/Sales against its own 10 years 62.47%
10-year low 10-year high
EV/FCF against its own 10 years 41.12%
10-year low 10-year high

Dividends

Yield
1.04%
Annual rate
0.40
Payout ratio
6.91%
  1. 0.00 ’18
  2. 0.00 ’19
  3. 0.00 ’20
  4. 0.10 ’21
  5. 0.40 ’22 +300
  6. 0.40 ’23 +0
  7. 0.40 ’24 +0
  8. 0.40 ’25 +0
  9. 0.40 ’26 +0
paid change on the year, % Powerpack

Assets vs Liabilities $m

2023 2024 2025 Q'26
Cash 944 1,138 1,597 4,408
Receivables 808 1,239 1,268 1,523
Inventory 2,158 1,998 2,177 2,570
Other 29 25 49 273
4,405 4,914 5,469 9,169
2023 2024 2025 Q'26
Payables 1,714 1,805 1,938 1,904
ST’ Debt 79 75 1 1
Other 792 1,051 1,185 1,313
3,030 3,395 3,801 3,974

Compound Annual Growth %

10y 5y 3y
Sales 1.37% 6.68% 1.01%
Cash Flow 3.08% 24.64% 12.97%
Earnings 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Book Value (6.13%) 4.05% (2.44%)

Earnings Trends EPS, adjusted, against the consensus

Q3 FY26 Estimate 1.65 Actual 1.82

Earnings per share against the consensus, by quarter
Quarter Estimate Reported Result
Q4 FY25 0.95 1.26 Beat by 0.31
Q1 FY26 1.60 1.40 Miss by 0.20
Q2 FY26 2.33 2.12 Miss by 0.21
Q3 FY26 1.65 1.82 Beat by 0.17
Q4 FY26 1.47 — Reports 28 January 2027

EPS $

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 1.60 1.53 1.81 — —
’25 2.07 0.62 0.88 0.85 4.42
’24 (1.41) 0.11 0.38 0.76 0.26
’23 (1.30) (0.57) (0.94) (0.84) (3.65)
’22 2.49 2.95 (4.17) (2.12) (0.68)
’21 0.93 1.63 1.76 (2.11) 2.26
’20 0.43 (1.06) (0.26) (0.02) (0.91)
Fiscal quarters ending in the months shown.

Revenue $m

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 3,193 3,966 3,704 — —
’25 3,369 3,018 2,995 3,449 12,831
’24 2,599 2,906 2,904 3,486 11,895
’23 2,670 2,684 2,602 2,595 10,551
’22 3,293 3,644 2,851 2,663 12,451
’21 2,870 2,833 3,109 3,340 12,152
’20 2,381 2,148 2,365 2,392 9,286
Fiscal quarters ending in the months shown.

Operating Cash Flow $m

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 (179) 608 643 — —
’25 75 488 85 537 1,185
’24 (223) 287 143 415 622
’23 (163) (13) 69 198 91
’22 34 536 134 118 822
’21 6 (86) 435 565 920
’20 (90) 288 158 38 394
Fiscal quarters ending in the months shown.

Free Cash Flow $m

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 (294) 423 475 — —
’25 (18) 357 (63) 296 572
’24 (323) 124 (3) 247 45
’23 (245) (127) (76) 12 (436)
’22 (38) 431 7 (53) 347
’21 522 (51) 362 663 1,496
’20 18 211 83 (73) 239
Fiscal quarters ending in the months shown.

Valuation

The price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing −0.6% a year for ten years.

Implied
−0.6%
Open the model

Target Price Range

Analyst price targets

Recommendation Rating

2
1Buy 2 3Hold 4 5Sell

Ten years at a glance Fiscal years to December

Ten-year view Analyst estimates Powerpack
Group Line 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 TTM Sep ’26 Trend 10 yrs 2026e 2027e 2028e Next 3/yr
Income, $m
Income, $m Revenue 9,318 11,652 13,403 10,433 9,286 12,152 12,451 10,551 11,895 12,831 14,312 +3.6% 14,671 14,897 14,005 +3.0%
Gross margin, % 15.46 23.19 24.99 18.17 14.18 24.68 17.98 6.99 15.56 16.94 21.93 +1.5 pt
EBT (162) 1,200 1,625 (438) 173 1,199 702 (584) 289 1,064 1,622 n/m
EBT margin, % (1.74) 10.30 12.12 (4.20) 1.86 9.87 5.64 (5.54) 2.43 8.29 11.33 +10.0 pt
Net income (346) 608 893 (853) (14) 570 38 (773) 24 1,119 1,510 n/m
Per share, $
Per share, $ Revenue 50.92 63.33 72.06 56.39 49.92 65.33 68.79 59.28 56.11 49.54 54.21 (0.3%)
Earnings (2.19) 1.51 1.22 (6.07) (0.91) 2.30 (0.68) (3.65) 0.26 4.45 5.84 n/m
Cash flow (1.70) 6.65 2.41 3.71 2.12 4.95 4.54 0.51 2.93 4.58 6.09 n/m
Capex (1.60) (0.87) (2.14) (1.92) (0.83) 3.10 (2.62) (2.96) (2.72) (2.37) (2.69) +4.5%
Free cash flow (3.30) 5.78 0.27 1.78 1.28 8.04 1.92 (2.45) 0.21 2.21 3.41 n/m
Book value 42.06 36.95 40.80 31.82 26.97 33.78 36.40 32.84 24.33 23.62 31.23 (6.2%)
Shares, m 183 184 186 185 186 186 181 178 212 259 263 +3.9%
Valuation, ×
Valuation, × P/E 0.00 46.36 21.79 0.00 0.00 26.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.94 6.61 10.6
P/S 0.57 0.87 0.37 0.38 0.46 0.91 0.65 0.56 0.67 1.07 0.71 0.7
P/B 0.69 1.49 0.65 0.68 0.85 1.76 1.22 1.01 1.55 2.25 1.24 1.2
EV/Sales 0.63 0.88 0.42 0.47 0.55 0.90 0.68 0.64 0.79 1.14 0.74 0.7
EV/FCF (9.73) 9.58 112.66 14.85 21.53 7.35 24.53 (15.59) 209.25 25.53 11.78 40.0
Cash, $m
Cash, $m Operating cash flow (311) 1,224 448 686 394 920 822 91 622 1,185 1,609 n/m
Capex (292) (160) (398) (356) (155) 576 (475) (527) (577) (613) (709) +8.6%
Free cash flow (603) 1,064 50 330 239 1,496 347 (436) 45 572 900 n/m
Balance, $m
Balance, $m Working capital 360 986 1,409 967 1,759 1,803 2,246 1,375 1,519 1,668 5,195 +18.6%
Net debt 592 46 689 921 858 (87) 444 867 1,407 842 414 +4.0%
Shareholders’ equity 7,697 6,798 7,588 5,886 5,016 6,284 6,589 5,845 5,157 6,118 8,245 (2.5%)
Returns, %
Returns, % ROA (2.41) 1.63 1.49 (7.31) (1.15) 2.87 (0.83) (4.50) 0.43 7.66 8.41 +10.1 pt
ROIC 0.12 12.15 13.67 (1.42) 3.48 9.57 6.13 (3.19) 5.10 1.48 13.77 +1.4 pt
ROE (4.16) 3.85 3.48 (16.70) (3.12) 7.59 (1.91) (10.47) 1.09 20.52 20.82 +24.7 pt
People
People Employees 14,000 14,600 14,000 13,800 12,900 12,200 13,100 13,600 13,900 14,900 — +0.7%
Revenue/emp, $m 0.67 0.80 0.96 0.76 0.72 1.00 0.95 0.78 0.86 0.86 — +2.9%
Negative figures in brackets.
estimates

All 10 years →

Fiscal years to Dec 2025 · latest quarter Sep 2026 · fundamentals updated 2 Nov 2026

Business profile

Updated

Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company: it mines bauxite, refines it into alumina, and smelts alumina into aluminum metal. It also casts that metal into shapes customers can use. Bauxite is the raw material for alumina, while alumina is the main raw material for aluminum smelters.

The company sells bauxite and alumina to customers around the world and uses some of its alumina in its own smelters. It also sells primary aluminum as standard metal or as products made in particular shapes and alloys. Customers use those products to make goods for transportation, construction, packaging, electrical and other industrial markets.

Where the money comes from and where it goes Fiscal 2025

Fiscal 2025: revenue by segment, and margins
Aluminum 8,379 65.30%
Alumina 6,557 51.10%
Other 25 0.19%
Gross margin 16.94%
Operating margin 1.29%
Pre-tax margin 8.29%

Revenue by segment since 2015

Alcoa vs peers in the Basic Materials sector (Q) = latest quarter vs a year earlier

Company Market cap P/E Fwd P/E Revenue growth (Q) EPS growth (Q) FCF growth (Q) Gross margin (Q) EBIT margin (Q) Compare
SUZ Suzano S.A. Sponsored ADR $11.7B 4.8× — −2.26% (below 0%: shrinking) −59.15% (below 0%: shrinking) +85.24% (above 0%: growing) 24.41% 24.06% Compare
ALB Albemarle Corporation $11.6B 22.6× 9.9× +18.75% (above 0%: growing) n/m +708.43% (above 0%: growing) 19.36% 9.54% Compare
HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited $10.6B 52.0× 4.8× −3.10% (below 0%: shrinking) n/m +265.24% (above 0%: growing) 26.37% 0.00% Compare
AA Alcoa $10.1B 6.6× 6.3× +23.67% (above 0%: growing) +107.95% (above 0%: growing) +853.97% (above 0%: growing) 23.81% 15.74%
HL Hecla Mining Company $9.7B 25.3× 17.0× −3.59% (below 0%: shrinking) +48.47% (above 0%: growing) +456.08% (above 0%: growing) 50.67% 39.80% Compare
SSL Sasol Ltd. $9.6B 3.3× 5.5× −5.20% (below 0%: shrinking) +20.86% (above 0%: growing) +6,912.65% (above 0%: growing) 31.35% 0.00% Compare
TX Ternium S.A. $9.6B 9.1× 8.3× +17.43% (above 0%: growing) +1,773.00% (above 0%: growing) +224.47% (above 0%: growing) 22.31% 12.42% Compare
HBM HudBay Minerals Inc $9.1B 12.2× 13.7× +17.69% (above 0%: growing) +13.33% (above 0%: growing) +4.51% (above 0%: growing) 42.61% 34.80% Compare
SOLS Solstice Advanced Materials Inc. $8.8B 26.5× 20.5× +7.95% (above 0%: growing) −11.11% (below 0%: shrinking) +276.34% (above 0%: growing) 32.98% 15.68% Compare
Median of peers $9.7B 17.4× 9.9× +2.85% +17.10% +270.79% 28.86% 14.05%

All 279 Basic Materials stocks →

From the latest earnings call

Updated

  • CEO William Oplinger said Alcoa expects the South32 asset acquisition to close in the first half of 2027 and plans to prioritize debt reduction afterward.
  • CFO Molly Beerman said Alcoa expects higher production and shipments in both segments in the fourth quarter, alongside some higher input and maintenance costs.

Largest institutional holders 13F, quarter to 30 June 2026

Held by institutions 76.93%
Held by the ten largest 45.09%
Holder Shares Stake Change
BlackRock 29.32m 11.11% +923.11k
Vanguard 27.03m 10.24% +577.58k
Fidelity (FMR) 17.00m 6.44% +4.14m
EAGLE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC 11.88m 4.50% −2.22m
State Street 10.88m 4.12% −5.59k
Dimensional Fund Advisors 5.85m 2.22% −2.78m
Geode Capital Management 5.83m 2.21% −112.86k
AQR Capital Management 4.05m 1.54% −1.08m
Morgan Stanley 3.59m 1.36% −507.16k
D. E. Shaw 3.59m 1.36% −25.30k
13F filings for the quarter to 30 June 2026: long positions in US-listed shares reported by managers with $100m or more, ~45 days after the quarter.

Pay and ownership Proxy statement filed 19 March 2026

Ownership

Directors and executive officers, together less than 1%
BlackRock, Inc. 8.90% of Common Stock
The Vanguard Group 6.80% of Common Stock
Eagle Capital Management, LLC 5.90% of Common Stock
Ownership is the proxy’s own table: the directors and officers as a group, and every holder of 5% or more. Read the proxy statement

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AA metrics, ten years each

stockrow.com/AA · Data as of Nov 2, 2026 · For information only; not investment advice. · © 2026 stockrow.com