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Alcoa AA

Basic Materials — Aluminum
Dividend Champion (5y)
Growth Flags show if company had growth for consecutive years

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Insider Decisions

Total sells
1.35
in millions of $
Nov 25 Feb 26 May 26 Aug 26
Buy — — — — — — — — — — — —
Sell — — — — — — — — — 1 3 —
Insider Ownership
0.57%

Capital & Financial Ratios

Market Cap
12,470.00
Revenue
13,603.00
Net Income
1,246.00
Free Cash Flow
362.00
Net Debt
873.00
Current Ratio
1.54
Debt/Equity
0.30
P/E ratio
9.09
P/S ratio
0.86
P/B ratio
1.59
Past 5Y EPS Growth
—
This Y EPS Growth
74.45%
Next Y EPS Growth
(7.90%)
Next 5Y EPS Growth
19.26%
in millions of $

Dividends

Payout Ratio
0.06
Annual Dividend Rate
0.40
Annual Dividend Yield
1.26%
total individual payouts
2028 ‡‡‡‡‡
2027 ‡‡‡‡‡
2026 0.40
—
—
—
2025 0.40
—
—
—
—
2024 0.40
—
—
—
—
2023 0.40
—
—
—
—
2022 0.40
—
—
—
—
2021 0.10
—
2020 ‡‡‡
2019 ‡‡‡
2018 ‡‡‡
2017 ‡‡‡
2016 0.40
—
—
—
—
—
predictions in italic, special payouts not included in total or ratios

Assets vs Liabilities

2023 2024 2025 Q'26
Cash 944.00 1,138.00 1,597.00 1,352.00
Receivables 808.00 1,239.00 1,268.00 1,714.00
Inventory 2,158.00 1,998.00 2,177.00 2,340.00
Other 29.00 25.00 49.00 83.00
4,405.00 4,914.00 5,469.00 5,885.00
2023 2024 2025 Q'26
Payables 1,714.00 1,805.00 1,938.00 1,860.00
ST’ Debt 79.00 75.00 1.00 1.00
Other 792.00 1,051.00 1,185.00 1,328.00
3,030.00 3,395.00 3,801.00 3,834.00
in millions of $

Compound Annual Growth

10y 5y 3y
Sales ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡
Cash Flow ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡
Earnings ‡‡‡ ‡‡‡ ‡‡‡
Book Value ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡

Revenue

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 3,193.00 3,966.00 — —
—
’25 3,369.00 3,018.00 2,995.00 3,449.00
12,831.00
’24 2,599.00 2,906.00 2,904.00 3,486.00
11,895.00
’23 2,670.00 2,684.00 2,602.00 2,595.00
10,551.00
’22 3,293.00 3,644.00 2,851.00 2,663.00
12,451.00
’21 2,870.00 2,833.00 3,109.00 3,340.00
12,152.00
’20 2,381.00 2,148.00 2,365.00 2,392.00
9,286.00
in millions of $

Operating Cash Flow

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 (179.00) 608.00 — —
—
’25 75.00 488.00 85.00 537.00
1,185.00
’24 (223.00) 287.00 143.00 415.00
622.00
’23 (163.00) (13.00) 69.00 198.00
91.00
’22 34.00 536.00 134.00 118.00
822.00
’21 6.00 (86.00) 435.00 565.00
920.00
’20 (90.00) 288.00 158.00 38.00
394.00
in millions of $

Free Cash Flow

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 (294.00) 423.00 — —
—
’25 (18.00) 357.00 (63.00) 296.00
572.00
’24 (323.00) 124.00 (3.00) 247.00
45.00
’23 (245.00) (127.00) (76.00) 12.00
(436.00)
’22 (38.00) 431.00 7.00 (53.00)
347.00
’21 522.00 (51.00) 362.00 663.00
1,496.00
’20 18.00 211.00 83.00 (73.00)
239.00
in millions of $

EPS

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 1.60 1.53 — —
—
’25 2.07 0.62 0.88 0.85
4.42
’24 (1.41) 0.11 0.38 0.76
0.26
’23 (1.30) (0.57) (0.94) (0.84)
(3.65)
’22 2.49 2.95 (4.17) (2.12)
(0.57)
’21 0.93 1.63 1.76 (2.11)
2.26
’20 0.43 (1.06) (0.26) (0.02)
(0.91)

Target Price Range

High
‡‡‡‡‡
‡‡‡‡‡
Average
‡‡‡‡‡
‡‡‡‡
Low
‡‡‡‡‡
‡‡‡‡

Recommendation Rating

1.9
1
Buy
2
3
Hold
4
5
Sell
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡ 33.55 23.07 24.86 21.53 — — —
Low Price
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 98.09 57.61 47.77 54.82 — — —
High Price
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 13,100 13,600 13,900 14,900 — — —
Employees
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 0.95 0.78 0.86 0.86 — — —
Revenue/Emp
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 12,451.00 10,551.00 11,895.00 12,831.00 ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡
Revenue
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 17.98% 6.99% 15.56% 16.94% — — —
Gross Margin
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 702.00 (584.00) 289.00 1,064.00 — — —
EBT
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 5.64% (5.54%) 2.43% 8.29% ‡‡‡ ‡‡‡ ‡‡‡
EBT Margin
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 38.00 (773.00) 24.00 1,119.00 ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡
Net Income
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 617.00 632.00 642.00 767.00 — — —
Depreciation
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 68.79 59.28 56.11 49.54 ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡
Revenue/Sh
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡ (0.57) (3.65) 0.26 4.45 ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡
Earnings/Sh
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 4.54 0.51 2.93 4.58 — — —
Cash Flow/Sh
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ (2.62) (2.96) (2.72) (2.37) ‡‡‡ ‡‡‡ ‡‡‡
Capex/Sh
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 1.92 (2.45) 0.21 2.21 — — —
Free CF/Sh
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 36.40 32.84 24.33 23.62 — — —
Book Value/Sh
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 181.00 178.00 212.00 259.00 ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡
Shares
‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡ ‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.94 ‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡
PE Ratio
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 0.65 0.56 0.67 1.07 ‡‡‡ ‡‡‡ ‡‡‡
PS Ratio
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 1.22 1.01 1.55 2.25 ‡‡‡ ‡‡‡ ‡‡‡
PB Ratio
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 0.68 0.64 0.79 1.14 ‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡
EV/Sales
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 24.53 (15.59) 209.25 25.53 — — —
EV/FCF
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 822.00 91.00 622.00 1,185.00 ‡‡‡ ‡‡‡ ‡‡‡
Op' Cash Flow
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ (475.00) (527.00) (577.00) (613.00) ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ —
Capex
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 347.00 (436.00) 45.00 572.00 — — —
FCF
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 2,246.00 1,375.00 1,519.00 1,668.00 — — —
Working Cap'
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 1,807.00 1,811.00 2,545.00 2,439.00 — — —
Total Debt
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 444.00 867.00 1,407.00 842.00 — — —
Net Debt
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 6,589.00 5,845.00 5,157.00 6,118.00 — — —
Sh' Equity
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ (0.83%) (4.50%) 0.43% 7.66% — — —
ROA
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ 6.13% (3.19%) 5.10% 1.48% — — —
ROIC
‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ (1.91%) (10.47%) 1.09% 20.52% — — —
ROE
predictions in italic, sparklines do not include predictions

Analyst Commentary (Summary)

Alcoa Corporation (AA), a pure-play aluminum leader, is poised at a pivotal inflection point, fueled by surging demand for lightweight materials in EVs, renewables, and aerospace amid the green transition. Despite commodity volatility, energy shocks, and pandemic lows, recent data shows resilient fundamentals: revenue rebounding 13% to $11.9B in 2024 from 2023’s dip, with analysts forecasting 17% cumulative growth to $13.8B by 2026. Profitability metrics dazzle—gross margins doubling to 16% in 2024, EBT flipping to $289M profit (+149%), and explosive 2025 EPS surge to $4.45 (+1,611% YoY), driving ROE to 21% and FCF/share to $2.21.

The balance sheet anchors this recovery, with manageable net debt at $1.4B, ROIC improving to 5%, and working capital buffers supporting capex restarts in Australia and Spain. Valuations scream opportunity: forward P/E at 12x, PS at 0.7-1.1x, and PB at 1.5-2.3x—below historical peaks—amid stock highs near 60, up 150% from 2023 troughs. Analyst targets imply 8-30% upside, skewed bullish on aluminum pricing power and ESG catalysts like low-carbon EcoSource.

With 20%+ EPS growth through 2027, stable FCF enabling buybacks, and macro tailwinds from U.S. infrastructure and China’s stimulus, AA masks as a cyclical play but offers asymmetric 30%+ returns in the electrification boom. Risks like energy costs loom, but diversified assets mitigate them—read the full analysis for probabilistic models and deeper catalysts.

Read full commentary →

Alcoa (AA) Latest News

News by impact score

Fine-tune

16 Sep

3 , 6:31 PM
Alcoa priced $2.6 billion of acquisition notes carrying $175 million annual interest, with questions whether acquired assets can cover the payments. Debt issuance for acquisitions adds material interest burden that can affect Alcoa's financial flexibility and performance.

12 Sep

4 www.marketbeat.com, 1:02 AM
Alcoa anticipates aluminum supply deficit with strong demand and tariff benefits highlighted at Jefferies conference. Market deficit signals and demand strength combined with tariff upside indicate major positive shifts for Alcoa's trajectory.

9 Sep

4 , 5:23 PM
Alcoa Corporation prices debt offering to finance cash acquisition of South32’s bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets. Debt-funded buyout of major bauxite alumina and aluminum assets materially expands Alcoa’s production base and competitive scale.

4 , 8:10 AM
Alcoa Corporation proposes a debt offering to finance the cash acquisition of South32’s bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets. Debt-financed purchase of South32 assets marks major expansion of Alcoa’s core production capacity and market position.

26 Aug

4 www.marketbeat.com, 2:35 PM
Alcoa launches gallium project to expand beyond aluminum into new materials. Gallium project marks major strategic diversification with potential to reshape Alcoa's growth trajectory.

4 247wallst.com, 9:00 AM
Middle East energy outlook is projected to drive Alcoa stock price to $68. Middle East energy shifts can substantially alter Alcoa's costs and valuation trajectory.

25 Aug

3 www.mining-technology.com, 4:39 AM
Alcoa commences construction on a gallium plant at its Wagerup refinery. Gallium plant construction marks entry into critical minerals production with moderate long-term operational implications.

24 Aug

4 , 9:10 AM
Alcoa breaks ground on Wagerup Gallium Plant, expanding its critical minerals operations. Gallium plant construction marks major strategic expansion into critical minerals with potential to reshape long-term growth and positioning.

3 , 5:48 AM
Australia, Japan, the United States and Alcoa have broken ground on a gallium project in Western Australia. Gallium project adds potential new revenue in critical minerals but stays secondary to Alcoa's core aluminum business.

23 Aug

3 , 5:21 AM
Canada holds enough aluminum smelting capacity to meet total U.S. demand, which would cut imports from outside North America and reduce the need for U.S. domestic output. Shift in North American supply sources could alter Alcoa's sales volumes and pricing power.

20 Aug

4 , 9:07 AM
Structural supply tightening is creating a multi-year bull case for Alcoa Corp. (AA). Supply tightening structurally drives multi-year bullish performance outlook for Alcoa.

14 Aug

4 , 6:00 AM
Trump supporters threaten a $4 billion Alcoa aluminum plant central to his industrial policy, placing major operations at risk. Threat to $4 billion plant risks major disruption to Alcoa operations and long-term financial performance.

12 Aug

4 , 12:14 PM
Alcoa (AA) stock briefly tops buy point as earnings surge 357% on strong trends. 357% earnings surge signals major positive shift in Alcoa's financial performance and investor appeal.

5 Aug

4 , 6:00 AM
Pentagon war game months before Iran attacks exposed critical US aluminum supply risks, highlighting vulnerabilities for domestic producers including Alcoa amid potential supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions. Exposure of US aluminum supply chain vulnerabilities signals major strategic and market shifts for Alcoa.

20 Jul

4 , 11:12 PM
Alcoa (AA) stock may be 45% undervalued as gallium project starts. Gallium project launch signals potential major revenue growth and strategic positioning in critical minerals.

4 www.manufacturingdive.com, 8:11 AM
Alcoa lowers production outlook due to refinery issues. Production cuts point to operational setbacks that will reduce output and weigh on revenue and shares.

18 Jul

3 www.marketbeat.com, 9:05 AM
Alcoa shares declined post-earnings as market overlooked underlying business developments. Post-earnings reaction may moderately shift sentiment and near-term performance for Alcoa.

17 Jul

4 www.barchart.com, 2:50 PM
Alcoa cuts aluminum production guidance, triggering a dip in AA stock. Production guidance reduction directly signals lower future output and earnings for Alcoa.

4 www.trefis.com, 8:02 AM
Alcoa stock turnaround may be driven by higher aluminum prices, stronger demand in key markets, operational improvements and potential strategic actions by management. Turnaround analysis points to major market and operational shifts likely to alter Alcoa's trajectory and investor views.

3 , 4:01 PM
Alcoa cuts 2026 alumina output forecast to 9.5-9.6 million tons. Lower 2026 alumina output target directly signals reduced future production volumes with moderate effects on revenue and supply outlook.

3 , 10:00 AM
Alcoa's Q2 earnings call highlighted the AliGroup growth plan. Q2 earnings call with growth plan details signals moderate strategic developments likely to influence operations and sentiment without major trajectory shifts.

3 transcript app.moby.co, 8:30 AM
Alcoa Corporation conducted its Q2 2026 earnings call, covering quarterly financial results and operational updates. Quarterly earnings calls deliver performance updates that can shift near-term investor sentiment without guaranteeing major strategic shifts.

16 Jul

4 , 4:10 PM
Alcoa Corporation released its second quarter 2026 financial results. Quarterly earnings directly shape near-term stock valuation and guidance expectations.

3 transcript www.marketbeat.com, 7:03 PM
Alcoa reported Q2 results and outlook during its earnings call. Quarterly earnings and guidance typically produce moderate short-term stock moves without altering long-term trajectory.

3 , 6:30 PM
Alcoa Q2 earnings key metrics compared to estimates. Q2 earnings metrics versus estimates can moderately affect near-term stock sentiment and valuation.

3 , 4:56 PM
Alcoa earnings improve but stock declines anyway. Improving earnings paired with stock decline signals moderate short-term effects on performance and sentiment without major strategic shifts.

15 Jul

4 , 4:30 AM
Alcoa approves gallium plant construction in Australia backed by the U.S. and Japan. Gallium plant with U.S. and Japan backing marks major strategic expansion into critical minerals supply.

3 www.mining-technology.com, 11:08 AM
Alcoa will build a gallium plant at its Wagerup refinery. New gallium plant adds specialty materials capacity that may moderately affect Alcoa's operations and positioning.

3 , 7:13 AM
Alcoa restarts smelters despite alumina supply pressures and changing segment mix, shaping potential investor reactions to operational shifts. Smelter restarts amid alumina headwinds indicate operational adjustments likely to produce moderate effects on Alcoa's performance trajectory.

14 Jul

4 , 4:45 PM
Australia, Japan, the United States and Alcoa have announced a final investment decision for a gallium project in Western Australia. Alcoa's role in this multi-nation gallium project marks a major strategic expansion into critical minerals.
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