Alcoa
Alcoa’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $12.8 billion, up 7.87% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue grew 31.4%, EPS grew 144.4%, free cash flow grew 18.5% and total debt fell 16.0%, each against the same quarter a year earlier. Dividend growth for five consecutive years.
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Alcoa (AA) Altman Z-score
Alcoa's Altman Z-score for fiscal 2025 is 1.75, in the distress zone (below 1.81).
Altman Z-score, annual
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Annual newest first
| Period | Altman Z-score | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 1.75 | 0.25 |
| FY2024 | 1.51 | 0.42 |
| FY2023 | 1.09 | (0.64) |
| FY2022 | 1.73 | (0.16) |
| FY2021 | 1.89 | 0.86 |
| FY2020 | 1.03 | 0.06 |
| FY2019 | 0.98 | (0.73) |
| FY2018 | 1.70 | 0.15 |
| FY2017 | 1.56 | 0.64 |
| FY2016 | 0.92 | — |
How fiscal 2025’s score is made up
| Component | This year | Year before | Result | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Working capital / total assets | 0.10 | — | 0.12 | |
| Retained earnings / total assets | (0.02) | — | −0.02 | |
| EBIT / total assets | 0.01 | — | 0.03 | |
| Market value of equity / total liabilities | 1.37 | — | 0.82 | |
| Sales / total assets | 0.80 | — | 0.80 | |
| Altman Z-score | Distress zone | 1.75 | ||
| Z″ Variant for non-manufacturing and asset-light companies (drops the sales/assets term, uses book equity) | Grey zone | 1.33 | ||
Z and Z″ put Alcoa in different zones: distress zone by Z, grey zone by Z″.
How the Altman Z-score works
Z = 1.2 × working capital ÷ total assets + 1.4 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 3.3 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 0.6 × market value of equity ÷ total liabilities + 1.0 × revenue ÷ total assets (Altman, 1968). The market value of equity is the close on the last trading day of the fiscal year times weighted basic shares.
Z″ = 6.56 × working capital ÷ total assets + 3.26 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 6.72 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 1.05 × book equity ÷ total liabilities (Altman, Hartzell and Peck, 1995), the variant for non-manufacturing and asset-light companies.
| Zone | Z | Z″ |
|---|---|---|
| Safe zone | above 2.99 | above 2.60 |
| Grey zone | 1.81–2.99 | 1.10–2.60 |
| Distress zone | below 1.81 | below 1.10 |
Not worked out for banks, insurers and REITs, whose balance sheets the model does not describe, nor when a figure is missing or there is no share price in the week to the fiscal year end.
Altman Z-score against peers
| Company | Altman Z-score |
|---|---|
| HL Hecla Mining Company compare | 8.7× |
| HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited compare | 4.1× |
| HBM HudBay Minerals Inc compare | 2.5× |
| TX Ternium S.A. compare | 2.4× |
| ALB Albemarle Corporation compare | 2.3× |
| SOLS Solstice Advanced Materials Inc. compare | 2.3× |
| SSL Sasol Ltd. compare | 1.9× |
| AA Alcoa | 1.8× |
| SUZ Suzano S.A. Sponsored ADR compare | 1.2× |
What Altman Z-score is
The Altman Z-Score weighs working capital, retained earnings, operating profit, market value and sales against assets and debts to gauge the risk of distress.
1.2 × working capital ÷ total assets + 1.4 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 3.3 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 0.6 × market value of equity ÷ total liabilities + 1.0 × revenue ÷ total assets