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Friday 6 November 2026 Export ULTA’s income statement to Excel — free account

Ulta Beauty Inc.

ULTA Consumer Cyclical Specialty Retail

Ulta Beauty Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2026 (year ended January 2026) was $12.4 billion, up 9.71% from fiscal 2025.

Revenue
+8.87%
EPS
+13.3%
Free cash flow
+96.5%
Total debt
+17.5%

Quarter to July 2026, against a year earlier

648.00 12.70 −1.92%
Market cap
$27.8B
P/E
23.5×
Fwd P/E
22.1×
Dividend yield
—
F-score
6/9
Altman Z
7.15
Beneish M
−2.39
Dividend safety
n/a
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
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Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $648.00 the price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 9.1% a year for ten years.

Free cash flow after share-based pay grew 23.0% a year over the last ten years, 7.3% over the last five. The price asks for less than its ten-year rate. The industry’s median company is priced for 8.5%.

In January 2017 the price assumed 26.2% a year; Ulta Beauty Inc. went on to grow free cash flow after share-based pay 17.5% a year to FY2026.

Price implies
9.1%
Last 5 years, reported
7.3%
Last 10 years, reported
23.0%
Industry median implies
8.5%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ free cash flow after share-based pay at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
9.1% a year for ten years
$648.00
today’s price
Its base case
23.0% a year for five years, then 13.8%
$1,342.44
107.2% above today’s price

Both are growth in free cash flow after share-based pay, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Ulta Beauty Inc.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Cash flow to equity
the four quarters to July 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings, before share-based pay

Yearly growth in cash flow. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 9.1% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

Diluted shares outstanding. Net debt, under Advanced inputs, is taken off before dividing.

Advanced inputs
Free cash flow Revenue and margin
negative is net cash
new shares the cash flow does not pay for

Against Ulta Beauty Inc.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.84 × equity premium 4.5% = 8.1% cost of equity; weighted, 8.1%.

Use 8.1%
Equity value $59.37b ▲ above market cap $28.66b
Base case value per share $1,342.44 equity value ÷ 44.23m shares
Current price $648.00 market price per share
Above today’s price 107.2% upside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$19.70b 10 years of cash to equity+$39.80b terminal value−$126.13m net debt=$59.37b equity value÷44.23m shares=$1,342.44 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Specialty Retail).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 23.51× 21.20× 28.95× 19% below 19.32× 22% above
P/FCF 24.22× 23.74× 25.23× 4% below 12.81× 89% above
P/B 10.53× 10.67× 9.96× 6% above 2.19× 382% above
EV/EBITDA 14.87× 13.87× 15.42× 4% below 7.94× 87% above
EV/Sales 2.22× 2.25× 2.33× 5% below 0.75× 195% above
P/E P/FCF P/B EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
1.75×2.04×2.32×2.61×10Y avg 2.33×2018201920202021202220232024202520262026

ULTA trades at 2.22× EV/Sales, against a 10-year average of 2.33× (range 1.75×–2.62×). That is cheaper than 89% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $680.24 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.