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Stag Industrial, Inc.

STAG Real Estate Reit Industrial

Stag Industrial, Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $845.2 million, up 10.1% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+9.44%
EPS
+44.0%
Free cash flow
+2,111.2%
Total debt
+9.80%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

36.50 0.41 −1.11%
Market cap
$7.1B
P/E
26.1×
Fwd P/E
33.6×
Dividend yield
3.82%
F-score
6/9
Altman Z
n/a
Beneish M
n/a
Dividend safety
n/a
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios
Valuation Filings

Stag Industrial, Inc. (STAG) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $36.50 the price implies FFO a share growing 0.7% a year for ten years.

FFO a share grew 5.9% a year over the last ten years, 6.4% over the last five. The price asks for less than its ten-year rate. The industry’s median company is priced for 4.7%.

In December 2017 the price assumed 3.8% a year; Stag Industrial, Inc. went on to grow FFO a share 5.6% a year to FY2025.

FFO a share is worked out from Stag Industrial, Inc.’s 10-Ks and 10-Qs: net income, plus the depreciation of its property and impairments, less gains on property sales.

Price implies
0.7%
Last 5 years, reported
6.4%
Last 10 years, reported
5.9%
Industry median implies
4.7%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ FFO a share at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
0.7% a year for ten years
$36.50
today’s price
Its base case
5.9% a year for five years, then 3.5%
$49.86
36.6% above today’s price

Both are growth in FFO a share, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Stag Industrial, Inc.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · FFO a share
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in FFO a share. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies FFO a share growing 0.7% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

The model is a share’s own: no debt to take off and no shares to divide among.

Advanced inputs

Against Stag Industrial, Inc.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.93 × equity premium 4.5% = 8.5% cost of equity; weighted, 8.5%.

Use 8.5%
Base case value per share $49.86 ten years discounted, and what follows
Current price $36.50 market price per share
Above today’s price 36.6% upside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$21.95 10 years of FFO+$27.91 terminal value=$49.86 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Reit Industrial).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 26.08× 30.56× 46.69× 44% below 29.08× 10% below
P/FCF — 107.48× 107.48× — 27.37× —
P/B 1.91× 1.85× 1.86× 3% above 1.88× 2% above
EV/EBITDA 16.00× 16.98× 18.04× 11% below 19.77× 19% below
EV/Sales 11.66× 12.35× 12.94× 10% below 11.83× 1% below
P/FFO 13.82× 14.64× 16.13× 14% below — —
P/E P/B EV/EBITDA EV/Sales P/FFO
28.12×57.04×85.96×114.88×10Y avg 46.69×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

STAG trades at 26.08× P/E, against a 10-year average of 46.69× (range 23.73×–123.18×). That is cheaper than 78% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $65.34 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.