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Simon Property Group, Inc.

SPG Real Estate Reit Retail

Simon Property Group, Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $6.4 billion, up 6.72% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+13.3%
EPS
−17.2%
Free cash flow
−1.30%
Total debt
+10.2%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

228.46 1.91 +0.84%
Market cap
$73.3B
P/E
16.4×
Fwd P/E
33.2×
Dividend yield
3.92%
F-score
3/9
Altman Z
n/a
Beneish M
n/a
Dividend safety
n/a
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios
Segments Valuation Filings

Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $228.46 the price implies FFO a share growing 4.4% a year for ten years.

FFO a share grew 4.1% a year over the last ten years, 8.1% over the last five. The price asks for close to its ten-year rate. The industry’s median company is priced for 1.5%.

In December 2017 the price assumed 4.0% a year; Simon Property Group, Inc. went on to grow FFO a share 1.9% a year to FY2025.

FFO a share is worked out from Simon Property Group, Inc.’s 10-Ks and 10-Qs: net income, plus the depreciation of its property and impairments, less gains on property sales.

Price implies
4.4%
Last 5 years, reported
8.1%
Last 10 years, reported
4.1%
Industry median implies
1.5%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ FFO a share at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
4.4% a year for ten years
$228.46
today’s price
Its base case
4.1% a year for five years, then 2.5%
$211.13
7.6% below today’s price

Both are growth in FFO a share, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Simon Property Group, Inc.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · FFO a share
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in FFO a share. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies FFO a share growing 4.4% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

The model is a share’s own: no debt to take off and no shares to divide among.

Advanced inputs

Against Simon Property Group, Inc.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 1.31 × equity premium 4.5% = 10.2% cost of equity; weighted, 10.2%.

Use 10.2%
Base case value per share $211.13 ten years discounted, and what follows
Current price $228.46 market price per share
Below today’s price 7.6% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$96.08 10 years of FFO+$115.05 terminal value=$211.13 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Reit Retail).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 16.37× 18.33× 20.95× 22% below 24.06× 32% below
P/FCF 21.88× 17.16× 16.75× 31% above 17.80× 23% above
P/B 14.39× 12.95× 12.89× 12% above 1.77× 714% above
EV/EBITDA 19.65× 17.86× 17.77× 11% above 15.96× 23% above
EV/Sales 14.15× 13.12× 13.12× 8% above 10.99× 29% above
P/FFO 18.25× 14.08× 13.91× 31% above — —
P/E P/FCF P/B EV/EBITDA EV/Sales P/FFO
15.31×17.13×18.96×20.79×10Y avg 17.77×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

SPG trades at 19.65× EV/EBITDA, against a 10-year average of 17.77× (range 15.64×–20.67×). That is dearer than 89% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $198.32 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.