Federal judge clears California pipeline for Sable Offshore Corp., positioning SOC stock for its best day in 1.5 months. Pipeline clearance removes major regulatory obstacle enabling core operations.
| Nov 25 | Feb 26 | May 26 | Aug 26 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sell | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 0.27 | 335.77 | 97.68 | 21.60 |
| Receivables | — | — | — | 50.12 |
| Inventory | 16.21 | 15.34 | 26.74 | 25.67 |
| Other | — | — | — | — |
| 16.21 | 355.28 | 135.70 | 107.35 |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payables | 5.38 | 119.75 | 99.35 | 206.68 |
| ST’ Debt | — | — | 921.58 | 236.75 |
| Other | 1.15 | 0.92 | 2.49 | 2.93 |
| 17.90 | 120.67 | 1,023.43 | 446.36 |
| 10y | 5y | 3y | |
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Cash Flow | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
| Earnings | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
| Book Value | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
| Year |
|---|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | (82.22) | 9.42 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | (47.93) | (95.01) | (110.63) | (98.13) |
(351.70)
|
| ’24 | (58.60) | (57.74) | (31.63) | (37.46) |
(185.44)
|
| ’23 | (19.75) | (17.44) | (17.43) | (15.48) |
(70.10)
|
| ’22 | (0.31) | (0.32) | (0.21) | (0.88) |
(1.71)
|
| ’21 | (0.39) | (0.69) | (0.16) | (0.77) |
(2.01)
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | (103.27) | (22.09) | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | (111.24) | (224.69) | (240.74) | (192.66) |
(769.33)
|
| ’24 | (58.60) | (61.88) | (46.08) | (91.19) |
(257.74)
|
| ’23 | (19.75) | (17.44) | (17.43) | (15.48) |
(70.10)
|
| ’22 | (0.31) | (0.32) | (0.21) | (0.88) |
(1.71)
|
| ’21 | (0.39) | (0.69) | (0.16) | (0.77) |
(2.01)
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | (1.37) | (0.42) | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 0.07 | 0.32 | (0.68) | (0.39) |
(4.18)
|
| ’22 | 0.18 | 0.08 | (0.01) | (0.32) |
(0.07)
|
| ’21 | 0.00 | (0.15) | — | — |
0.12
|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡ | 9.65 | 10.04 | 10.11 | 3.72 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| — | — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 10.15 | 12.28 | 28.67 | 35.00 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 5 | 106 | 161 | 200 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue
|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (1.83) | (93.67) | (629.11) | (398.49) | — | — | — |
EBT
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
EBT Margin
|
| — | ‡‡‡ | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (2.59) | (93.67) | (629.07) | (410.16) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Net Income
|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.02 | 14.44 | 15.05 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.09) | (2.82) | (8.45) | (4.18) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Earnings/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.24) | (9.75) | (2.77) | (3.58) | ‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 0.00 | 0.00 | (1.08) | (4.25) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Capex/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.24) | (9.75) | (3.85) | (7.84) | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (2.55) | 47.17 | 5.73 | 5.44 | — | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 7.19 | 7.19 | 67.02 | 98.18 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Shares
|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PE Ratio
|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PS Ratio
|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PB Ratio
|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
EV/Sales
|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (1.71) | (70.10) | (185.44) | (351.70) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | (72.30) | (417.62) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — | — |
Capex
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (1.71) | (70.10) | (257.74) | (769.33) | — | — | — |
FCF
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (6.55) | (1.69) | 234.60 | (887.72) | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.78 | — | 833.54 | 921.58 | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1.68 | (0.27) | 497.77 | 823.90 | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (18.33) | 339.02 | 384.19 | 534.30 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (0.89%) | (18.69%) | (54.83%) | (24.68%) | — | — | — |
ROA
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | 0.00% | (17.43%) | (23.98%) | (18.79%) | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| — | — | — | — | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 16.57% | (58.42%) | (173.97%) | (89.31%) | — | — | — |
ROE
|
Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC), reborn via a 2024 SPAC merger, aims to revive the long-idle Santa Ynez Unit offshore California—platforms shuttered since the 2015 pipeline spill amid regulatory and environmental backlash. Trading at a steep 90% discount to the lowest analyst target, 150% to the mean, and over 225% to the high, the stock tantalizes contrarians with visions of $1.15B revenue by 2025-27, EPS turning positive in 2027, and first oil potentially ramping to 20-30k bpd. Yet this revival hinges on flawless execution in a hostile regulatory landscape under California’s green administration, where permits for pipeline repairs and flaring remain precarious.
Fundamentals scream caution: a pre-merger zombie with zero revenue, exploding losses to -$629M in 2024, shares diluted 831% to 145M, and debt ballooning to $834M amid negative cash flows and ROE cratering to -174%. Capex surges and inefficient ROIC (-24%) underscore the capital-intensive restart risks, echoed by peers like Venoco’s post-spill bankruptcy. Insider signals mix modest sells with a hefty $14.8M October 2025 buy, hinting at conviction but no guarantees in this speculative shell.
While analyst dreams project a 173% net income rebound and cash flow positivity, underappreciated threats loom—seismic retrofits, carbon mandates, oil volatility below $60, and dilution recurrences. SOC offers a binary gamble: moonshot returns if approvals flow, or wipeout in California’s quicksand. A small position tempts at these depths, but tread lightly—the house holds the cards.
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