Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) Earnings & Analysis

Latest quarter

Oshkosh reported Q3 FY2026 revenue of $2.8 billion, below the consensus of $2.9 billion. Adjusted earnings per share of $2.41 also missed the consensus estimate of $3.01. Revenue rose from $2.7 billion a year earlier, while diluted earnings per share fell to $2.22 from $3.04.

The company attributed the sales increase primarily to higher Access equipment volume and improved pricing across its three segments, partly offset by lower Vocational volume. CFO Matt Field said Access sales rose 21% to $1.3 billion, while Vocational sales fell $68 million to $900 million, primarily because of fire truck production challenges. Transport sales declined to $562 million; Field noted that the prior-year quarter included a $25 million intellectual-property license that did not recur.

Oshkosh reported gross margin of 15.5%, down from 17.5% a year earlier. Its filing attributed the decline primarily to the mix of products sold and higher material costs, including tariffs and freight. The filing said operating activities provided $533.2 million in the first nine months of 2026, compared with $183.3 million a year earlier, reflecting lower inventory levels and higher customer advances.

Adjusted EPS is the figure the consensus estimates, not the GAAP EPS above.

What management said on the call

CEO John Pfeifer said the shortfall against Oshkosh’s expectations principally reflected challenges in changing fire truck production. Many custom parts are made internally, and he said their routing caused more production variability than expected, reducing output and deliveries. In response, Oshkosh is improving parts tracking and delivery to workstations, stabilizing processes and adding manufacturing leadership.

Asked about the pace of improvement, Pfeifer said, “we are not satisfied with the disruptions or the pace of improvement that we have seen in fire truck production.” He said Oshkosh was digitizing and controlling the movement of individual parts. CFO Matt Field said production and shipments were roughly 20% below the prior-year quarter, and he expected sequential improvement in the fourth quarter.

Pfeifer said demand for Access equipment was being driven by large projects, including data centers. He said the segment received $2 billion in quarterly orders and ended the quarter with a $2.7 billion backlog. Field said orders included early 2027 purchases from selected national rental companies and that higher production volume improved manufacturing efficiency, partly offset by customer mix and incentive compensation. Pfeifer said Oshkosh had discussed pricing with customers and would reopen discussions if input-cost volatility continued.

Pfeifer also said refuse and recycling vehicle orders recovered during the quarter as customers planned their 2027 fleets. He said Oshkosh invested in Nextera Robotics, whose technology combines artificial intelligence, autonomous robotics and digital mapping for construction sites.

On postal delivery vehicles, Pfeifer said key suppliers were limiting the production ramp and that Oshkosh was adding supply buffers. Asked about production rates, he said the company expected an annualized rate of 16,000-20,000 units in the fourth quarter and the upper end of that range by the middle of 2027. Asked about near-term margins, Field said, “we are not going to get into the specifics of how we see operating margin” in the near term.

Guidance

Oshkosh lowered its FY2026 sales expectation to approximately $11.0 billion from $11.2 billion. It now expects diluted earnings per share of $8.00 to $9.00 and adjusted earnings per share of $8.50 to $9.50, reflecting lower fire truck and delivery vehicle production, partly offset by higher Access volume.

Field said the low end of the adjusted earnings range reflects a possible delay of the next postal vehicle order into 2027. He also raised the company’s free cash flow expectation by $50 million to $600 million-$700 million for 2026.