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Old National Bancorp

ONB Financial Banks Regional

Old National Bancorp’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $3.7 billion, up 26.4% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
−0.23%
EPS
+43.5%
Free cash flow
+11.5%
Total debt
+6.23%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

25.12 0.77 −2.97%
Market cap
$9.5B
P/E
10.2×
Fwd P/E
9.8×
Dividend yield
2.87%
F-score
7/9
Altman Z
n/a
Beneish M
n/a
Dividend safety
n/a
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios
Segments Valuation Filings

Old National Bancorp (ONB) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $25.12 the price implies 14.9% a year of dividend growth, at a 9.0% cost of equity.

The dividend a share grew 2.6% a year over the last ten years, 1.9% over the last five. The price asks for more than four times its ten-year rate. Return on equity averaged 8.6% over ten years; the price implies 10.0% for good.

In December 2017 the price assumed 12.3% a year; Old National Bancorp went on to grow the dividend a share 13.1% a year to FY2025.

Price implies
14.9%
Last 5 years, reported
1.9%
Last 10 years, reported
2.6%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ the dividend a share at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
14.9% a year for ten years
$25.12
today’s price
Its base case
2.6% a year for five years, then 1.5%
$9.62
61.7% below today’s price

Both are growth in the dividend a share, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Old National Bancorp’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Dividends
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in the dividend. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies the dividend a share growing 14.9% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

The model is a share’s own: no debt to take off and no shares to divide among.

Advanced inputs

Against Old National Bancorp’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.89 × equity premium 4.5% = 8.3% cost of equity; weighted, 8.3%.

Use 8.3%
Base case value per share $9.62 ten years discounted, and what follows
Current price $25.12 market price per share
Below today’s price 61.7% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$4.50 10 years of dividends+$5.12 terminal value=$9.62 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Banks Regional).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 10.21× 11.43× 13.05× 22% below 12.02× 15% below
P/FCF 9.72× 10.06× 11.14× 13% below 10.60× 8% below
P/B 1.18× 1.04× 1.02× 16% above 1.23× 4% below
EV/Sales — 4.09× 4.64× — 3.90× —
P/E P/FCF P/B EV/Sales
0.87×0.98×1.08×1.19×10Y avg 1.02×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

ONB trades at 1.18× P/B, against a 10-year average of 1.02× (range 0.89×–1.18×). That is dearer than 100% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $21.72 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.