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Northern Trust Corporation

NTRS Financial Asset Management

Northern Trust Corporation’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $14.3 billion, down 9.92% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+3.27%
EPS
+48.7%
Free cash flow
+366.4%
Total debt
−23.4%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

174.15 2.76 +1.61%
Market cap
$31.0B
P/E
13.4×
Fwd P/E
12.6×
Dividend yield
1.91%
F-score
7/9
Altman Z
n/a
Beneish M
n/a
Dividend safety
n/a
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios
Segments Valuation Filings

Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $174.15 the price implies 18.8% a year of dividend growth, at a 9.0% cost of equity.

The dividend a share grew 8.4% a year over the last ten years, 1.9% over the last five. The price asks for about twice its ten-year rate. Return on equity averaged 13.2% over ten years; the price implies 17.9% for good.

In December 2017 the price assumed 21.6% a year; Northern Trust Corporation went on to grow the dividend a share 18.2% a year to FY2025.

Price implies
18.8%
Last 5 years, reported
1.9%
Last 10 years, reported
8.4%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ the dividend a share at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
18.8% a year for ten years
$174.15
today’s price
Its base case
8.4% a year for five years, then 5.0%
$71.37
59.0% below today’s price

Both are growth in the dividend a share, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Northern Trust Corporation’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Dividends
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in the dividend. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies the dividend a share growing 18.8% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

The model is a share’s own: no debt to take off and no shares to divide among.

Advanced inputs

Against Northern Trust Corporation’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 1.22 × equity premium 4.5% = 9.8% cost of equity; weighted, 9.8%.

Use 9.8%
Base case value per share $71.37 ten years discounted, and what follows
Current price $174.15 market price per share
Below today’s price 59.0% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$30.05 10 years of dividends+$41.32 terminal value=$71.37 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Asset Management).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 13.39× 14.17× 15.31× 13% below 13.38× 0% above
P/FCF 28.64× 16.79× 16.26× 76% above 7.79× 268% above
P/B 2.51× 1.96× 2.05× 22% above 0.91× 176% above
P/E P/FCF P/B
8.31×14.81×21.32×27.82×10Y avg 16.26×2016201720182019202020212022202320252026

NTRS trades at 28.64× P/FCF, against a 10-year average of 16.26× (range 5.49×–29.60×). That is dearer than 89% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $98.87 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.