Friday 6 November 2026 Export NTRA’s income statement to Excel — free account

Natera, Inc.

Natera, Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $2.3 billion, up 35.9% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue: +34.1%
EPS: +34.4%
Free cash flow: −85.8%
Total debt: −0.06%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

315.13 48.63 −13.37%

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Market cap: $52.4B
P/E: 0.0×
Fwd P/E: −289×
Dividend yield: —
F-score: 6/9
Altman Z: 26.84
Beneish M: −2.17
Dividend safety: n/a

Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis Segments Valuation Filings

Natera, Inc. (NTRA) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $315.13 the price implies revenue of $60.40 billion by year ten, growing 35.4% a year, at a 10% free-cash-flow margin then.

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ free cash flow after share-based pay at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF

The price needs: 35.4% a year for ten years; $315.13; today’s price
Its base case: 28.3% a year for five years, then 17.0%; $113.28; 64.1% below today’s price

Both are growth in revenue, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Natera, Inc.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

1 · Revenue and margin

Revenue, last twelve months ($ billions)the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Free-cash-flow margin now (%)

Margin in year 10 (%)

Growth, yrs 1–5 (%)

Growth, yrs 6–10 (%)

Yearly growth in revenue. It usually slows as the company matures.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity (%)

Terminal growth (%)

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

Shares (billions)

Current price ($)

Diluted shares outstanding. Net debt, under Advanced inputs, is taken off before dividing.

Advanced inputs

Free cash flow Revenue and margin

Value per share Expected return

How the model ends

Net debt ($ billions)negative is net cash

Dilution a year (%)new shares the cash flow does not pay for

Margin of safety (%)

Against Natera, Inc.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 1.51 × equity premium 4.5% = 11.1% cost of equity; weighted, 11.1%.

Use 11.1%

Equity value $16.02b ▼ below market cap $44.56b

Base case value per share $113.28 equity value ÷ 141.39m shares

Current price $315.13 market price per share

Below today’s price 64.1% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$1.31b 10 years of cash to equity+$14.79b terminal value−$80.30m net debt=$16.02b equity value÷141.39m shares=$113.28 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Diagnostics & Research).

Multiple	Current	5Y avg	10Y avg	vs 10Y avg	Industry median	vs industry
P/FCF	1,004.35×	525.51×	525.51×	91% above	33.51×	2897% above
P/B	28.19×	15.53×	16.06×	76% above	3.42×	724% above
EV/Sales	17.87×	10.50×	9.66×	85% above	5.18×	245% above

P/FCF P/B EV/Sales

NTRA trades at 28.19× P/B, against a 10-year average of 16.06× (range 5.37×–28.19×). That is dearer than 100% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $179.52 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.