The Mosaic Company (MOS) Earnings & Analysis

Latest quarter

Mosaic reported Q3 FY2026 revenue of $3.1 billion, down from $3.5 billion a year earlier. Its consensus-tracked quarterly loss of $0.19 per share was larger than the consensus loss estimate of $0.03 per share. On a diluted basis, Mosaic’s filing reported a loss of $0.23 per share, compared with earnings of $1.29 a year earlier.

The filing attributed the pressure on gross margin to higher raw-material costs and reduced sales volumes. Gross margin fell to 2.71% from 16.0%, while operating margin fell to −3.12% from 9.84%.

In Phosphate, Mosaic reported an operating loss of $194 million, compared with operating earnings of $102 million a year earlier. The filing cited higher sulfur, ammonia and rock costs, lower sales volumes and production curtailments. Potash operating earnings declined to $188 million from $229 million as lower production and the Carlsbad sale reduced product availability.

Mosaic Fertilizantes posted an operating loss of $22 million, compared with earnings of $96 million a year earlier. The filing said constrained raw-material availability and limited customer credit in Brazil reduced volumes, while product and input costs rose. Mosaic reported free cash flow of $284.4 million, compared with −$141.7 million a year earlier.

Adjusted EPS is the figure the consensus estimates, not the GAAP EPS above.

What management said on the call

CEO Bruce Bodine said Mosaic had curtailed phosphate production at Bartow, in Louisiana and in Brazil to match its supply of affordable sulfur. The company also idled mining at South Fort Meade and Misquimayo to avoid accumulating rock while concentrate plants operated below capacity.

Bodine said Mosaic had secured fourth-quarter sulfur at $615 per ton, but the contracted volume was insufficient to run its US assets fully. He expected the lower contract price to benefit fourth-quarter cash flow immediately, while the earnings benefit would take longer as higher-cost inventory moved through the business. For the fourth quarter, he expected sulfur costs in cost of goods sold of $800 to $850 per ton and ammonia costs of $590 to $610 per ton.

Asked about demand and restarting production, Bodine said Mosaic would need confidence that improved production economics could be sustained before bringing capacity back. Commercial chief Yijun Wang said North American fall phosphate demand had exceeded expectations as crop prices and farm economics improved. Wang said Mosaic had “basically sold out our Q4 availability.”

On potash, Bodine told analysts that unexpected ore features and heavier maintenance turnarounds had contributed to production falling below the company’s third-quarter expectations. Low inventory left Mosaic unable to build the stock needed for anticipated fourth-quarter sales, he said, prompting an adjustment to guidance. He added that Esterhazy’s production had improved in October.

Bodine said Mosaic was reducing overhead and capital spending, advancing the sale of Araxá in Brazil and evaluating other noncore assets. Asked to quantify 2027 mining stripping margins in Florida, he said planning was still underway and the result would depend on demand and the mix of mines operated.

Guidance

Mosaic now expects 2026 potash production of 8.6 million tonnes. Bodine said lower production and inventory had also prompted the company to adjust its fourth-quarter sales guidance; Mosaic expects potash sales of 2.3 to 2.6 million tonnes. Bodine said Mosaic now targets 2027 capital expenditure below $1 billion.