Eli Lilly fair value edges higher as analysts back GLP-1 growth. Analyst support for GLP-1 growth lifts Eli Lilly fair value estimates and market sentiment.
| Nov 25 | Feb 26 | May 26 | Aug 26 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sell | 8 | 18 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| total | individual payouts | |
|---|---|---|
| 2028 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2027 | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
|
| 2026 | 6.94 |
—
—
—
|
| 2025 | 6.00 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2024 | 5.20 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2023 | 4.52 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2022 | 3.92 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2021 | 3.40 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2020 | 2.96 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2019 | 2.58 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2018 | 2.25 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2017 | 2.08 |
—
—
—
—
|
| 2016 | 2.55 |
—
—
—
—
—
|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2,927.70 | 3,268.00 | 7,268.00 | 8,950.00 |
| Receivables | 11,336.20 | 13,276.00 | 20,155.00 | 23,475.00 |
| Inventory | 5,772.80 | 7,589.00 | 13,744.00 | 16,793.00 |
| Other | 149.50 | 266.00 | 147.00 | 86.00 |
| 25,727.00 | 32,740.00 | 55,629.00 | 64,672.00 |
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payables | 2,598.80 | 3,229.00 | 5,379.00 | 6,112.00 |
| ST’ Debt | — | — | — | 7,050.00 |
| Other | 16,620.70 | 20,030.00 | 28,214.00 | 34,579.00 |
| 27,293.20 | 28,376.00 | 35,228.00 | 47,741.00 |
| 10y | 5y | 3y | |
| Sales | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Cash Flow | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Earnings | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Book Value | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 19,799.00 | 22,974.00 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 12,729.00 | 15,558.00 | 17,600.80 | 19,291.20 |
65,179.00
|
| ’24 | 8,768.00 | 11,302.80 | 11,439.10 | 13,533.10 |
45,043.00
|
| ’23 | 6,960.00 | 8,312.10 | 9,498.60 | 9,353.30 |
34,124.00
|
| ’22 | 7,810.00 | 6,488.00 | 6,941.60 | 7,301.80 |
28,541.40
|
| ’21 | 6,805.60 | 6,740.10 | 6,772.80 | 7,999.90 |
28,318.40
|
| ’20 | 5,859.80 | 5,499.40 | 5,740.60 | 7,440.00 |
24,539.80
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 5,333.00 | 10,690.00 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 1,666.00 | 3,087.00 | 8,835.40 | 3,224.60 |
16,813.00
|
| ’24 | 1,166.00 | 1,466.20 | 3,711.90 | 2,473.90 |
8,818.00
|
| ’23 | 1,730.60 | 631.90 | 2,189.50 | (312.00) |
4,240.00
|
| ’22 | 2,523.00 | 1,183.30 | 2,216.70 | 1,662.70 |
7,585.70
|
| ’21 | 1,697.40 | 1,775.50 | 1,631.30 | 2,261.70 |
7,365.90
|
| ’20 | 382.40 | 2,495.40 | 1,806.60 | 1,815.20 |
6,499.60
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 3,007.00 | 7,757.00 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 156.00 | 1,390.00 | 6,748.10 | 677.90 |
8,972.00
|
| ’24 | 179.70 | 241.40 | 2,892.10 | 977.70 |
3,760.00
|
| ’23 | 1,062.10 | (106.30) | 2,823.50 | (1,383.00) |
792.00
|
| ’22 | 2,157.60 | 812.30 | 1,665.30 | 1,162.00 |
5,731.40
|
| ’21 | 1,397.10 | 1,394.20 | 1,294.50 | 1,970.30 |
6,056.10
|
| ’20 | 124.10 | 2,213.60 | 1,413.50 | 1,360.50 |
5,111.70
|
| Mar | Jun | Sep | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ’26 | 8.26 | 7.94 | — | — |
—
|
| ’25 | 3.06 | 6.29 | 6.21 | 7.39 |
22.95
|
| ’24 | 2.48 | 3.28 | 1.07 | 4.88 |
11.71
|
| ’23 | 1.49 | 1.95 | (0.06) | 2.42 |
5.80
|
| ’22 | 2.10 | 1.05 | 1.61 | 2.14 |
6.90
|
| ’21 | 1.49 | 1.53 | 1.22 | 1.90 |
6.12
|
| ’20 | 1.60 | 1.55 | 1.33 | 2.32 |
6.79
|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 231.87 | 309.20 | 579.05 | 623.78 | — | — | — |
Low Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 375.25 | 629.97 | 972.53 | 1,111.99 | — | — | — |
High Price
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 39,000 | 43,000 | 47,000 | 50,000 | — | — | — |
Employees
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 0.73 | 0.79 | 0.96 | 1.30 | — | — | — |
Revenue/Emp
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 28,541.40 | 34,124.00 | 45,043.00 | 65,179.00 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 76.77% | 79.25% | 81.31% | 83.04% | — | — | — |
Gross Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 6,806.40 | 6,554.00 | 12,680.00 | 25,731.00 | — | — | — |
EBT
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 23.85% | 19.21% | 28.15% | 39.48% | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
EBT Margin
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 6,244.80 | 5,240.00 | 10,590.00 | 20,640.00 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Net Income
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 1,522.50 | 1,527.00 | 1,767.00 | 1,997.00 | — | — | — |
Depreciation
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 31.65 | 37.91 | 50.01 | 72.64 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Revenue/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | 6.90 | 5.80 | 11.71 | 22.95 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Earnings/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 8.41 | 4.71 | 9.79 | 18.74 | — | — | — |
Cash Flow/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (2.06) | (3.83) | (5.62) | (8.74) | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Capex/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 6.36 | 0.88 | 4.18 | 10.00 | — | — | — |
Free CF/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 11.95 | 12.07 | 15.85 | 29.57 | — | — | — |
Book Value/Sh
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 901.74 | 900.20 | 900.60 | 897.30 | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ |
Shares
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 52.90 | 102.10 | 65.93 | 46.83 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
PE Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 11.53 | 15.62 | 15.44 | 14.79 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PS Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 30.54 | 49.07 | 48.72 | 36.34 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
PB Ratio
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 12.02 | 16.14 | 16.02 | 15.34 | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡ |
EV/Sales
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 59.19 | 223.69 | 121.06 | 89.46 | — | — | — |
EV/FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 7,585.70 | 4,240.00 | 8,818.00 | 16,813.00 | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ |
Op' Cash Flow
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | (1,854.30) | (3,448.00) | (5,058.00) | (7,841.00) | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | — |
Capex
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 5,731.40 | 792.00 | 3,760.00 | 8,972.00 | — | — | — |
FCF
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 896.30 | (1,566.20) | 4,364.00 | 20,401.00 | — | — | — |
Working Cap'
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 16,238.50 | 18,320.80 | 28,527.00 | 40,868.00 | — | — | — |
Total Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 14,026.70 | 15,393.10 | 25,259.00 | 33,600.00 | — | — | — |
Net Debt
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 10,775.40 | 10,863.70 | 14,272.00 | 26,535.00 | — | — | — |
Sh' Equity
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 12.71% | 9.23% | 14.84% | 21.59% | — | — | — |
ROA
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 17.96% | 15.37% | 20.39% | 27.34% | — | — | — |
ROIC
|
| ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | ‡‡‡‡‡ | 62.67% | 48.43% | 84.26% | 101.16% | — | — | — |
ROE
|
Eli Lilly (LLY) has transformed into a pharmaceutical juggernaut, fueled by blockbuster GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound amid a global obesity crisis. Revenue skyrocketed from $21.2 billion in 2016 to $45 billion in 2024 (32% YoY growth), with gross margins hitting 81.3%, EBT margins at 28.2%, and revenue per employee up 89% to $958,000, showcasing operational excellence and pricing power despite legacy patent cliffs and supply chain tensions.
Stock performance mirrors this momentum, with shares surging ~10x to $973 highs in 2024, trading at a premium 66x P/E justified by EPS growth to $11.71. Free cash flow rebounded to $4.18 per share, supporting massive capex for production ramps, while ROIC reached 20.5% and ROE 84%. Insider buys by executives signal confidence, though net selling from a major holder tempers the bullishness.
Analysts forecast explosive growth—revenue to $106.7 billion by 2028 (14% CAGR), EPS to $48.56—with 22% average upside potential, but risks like competition from Novo Nordisk, U.S. pricing reforms, and geopolitical frictions loom. LLY’s efficiency and pipeline position it as a core growth holding with 15-20% annualized returns plausible through 2028.
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