Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.
HGV Consumer Cyclical Resorts & Casinos
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $5.0 billion, up 1.33% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue grew 7.27%, EPS fell 42.3%, free cash flow grew 318.5% and total debt rose 9.88%, each against the same quarter a year earlier. Revenue growth for five consecutive years.
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Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) Beneish M-score
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.'s Beneish M-score for fiscal 2025 is −2.71; values above −1.78 are the model's flag for possible earnings manipulation — a statistical screen, not a finding.
Beneish M-score, annual
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Annual newest first
| Period | Beneish M-score | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | −2.71 | 0.07 |
| FY2024 | −2.78 | (0.24) |
| FY2023 | −2.53 | (0.35) |
| FY2022 | −2.18 | (2.16) |
| FY2021 | −0.03 | 2.58 |
| FY2020 | −2.61 | (0.45) |
| FY2019 | −2.16 | (0.89) |
| FY2018 | −1.26 | 1.23 |
| FY2017 | −2.49 | (0.49) |
| FY2016 | −2.00 | 0.37 |
How fiscal 2025’s score is made up
| Component | This year | Year before | Result | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days’ sales in receivables index | 0.85 | — | 0.78 | |
| Gross margin index | 1.04 | — | 0.55 | |
| Asset quality index | 0.96 | — | 0.39 | |
| Sales growth index | 1.01 | — | 0.90 | |
| Depreciation index | 1.07 | — | 0.12 | |
| SG&A index | 1.14 | — | −0.20 | |
| Total accruals to total assets | (0.02) | — | −0.08 | |
| Leverage index | 1.02 | — | −0.33 | |
| Beneish M-score | Low — no pattern the model associates with manipulation | −2.71 | ||
How the Beneish M-score works
M = −4.84 + 0.920 × DSRI + 0.528 × GMI + 0.404 × AQI + 0.892 × SGI + 0.115 × DEPI − 0.172 × SGAI + 4.679 × TATA − 0.327 × LVGI (Beneish, 1999): eight changes in the accounts from one fiscal year to the next, which the model weighs for the pattern seen in companies that later restated their earnings. Higher is worse.
| below −2.22 | Low — no pattern the model associates with manipulation |
|---|---|
| −2.22 to −1.78 | Elevated |
| above −1.78 | Flagged by the model |
−1.78 is the cut-off usually quoted from the paper, −2.22 a common conservative one. A statistical screen, not a finding of wrongdoing.
When asset quality, depreciation or SG&A cannot be worked out, that index is set to 1, as Beneish did, and the breakdown says so; with all three missing there is no score. Depreciation includes amortisation, and asset quality leaves out securities. Not worked out for banks, insurers and REITs.
Beneish M-score against peers
| Company | Beneish M-score |
|---|---|
| MLCO Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited compare | −3.0× |
| PENN PENN Entertainment, Inc. compare | −3.0× |
| MTN Vail Resorts, Inc. compare | −2.8× |
| MCRI Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. compare | −2.7× |
| CZR Caesars Entertainment, Inc. compare | −2.7× |
| HGV Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. | −2.7× |
| RRR Red Rock Resorts, Inc. compare | −2.7× |
| VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation compare | −2.6× |
| BYD Boyd Gaming Corporation compare | −2.1× |
What Beneish M-score is
The Beneish M-Score combines eight year-on-year changes in the accounts into a statistical screen for patterns seen in companies that overstated earnings.
−4.84 + 0.920 × DSRI + 0.528 × GMI + 0.404 × AQI + 0.892 × SGI + 0.115 × DEPI − 0.172 × SGAI + 4.679 × TATA − 0.327 × LVGI