FTAI Aviation Ltd.

FTAI Industrials Aerospace & Defense

FTAI Aviation Ltd.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $2.5 billion, up 44.5% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+46.6%
EPS
+30.6%
Free cash flow
−107.5%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

180.61 20.13 −10.03%
Market cap
$20.6B
P/E
40.1×
Fwd P/E
33.5×
Dividend yield
0.85%
F-score
5/9
Altman Z
4.69
Beneish M
−0.80
Dividend safety
64/100

FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $180.61 the price implies revenue of $26.71 billion by year ten, growing 22.8% a year, at a 10% free-cash-flow margin then.

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ free cash flow after share-based pay at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
22.8% a year for ten years
$180.61
today’s price
Its base case
33.8% a year for five years, then 20.3%
$251.08
39.0% above today’s price

Both are growth in revenue, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record FTAI Aviation Ltd.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Revenue and margin
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in revenue. It usually slows as the company matures.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

Diluted shares outstanding. Net debt, under Advanced inputs, is taken off before dividing.

Advanced inputs
negative is net cash
new shares the cash flow does not pay for

Against FTAI Aviation Ltd.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 1.52 × equity premium 4.5% = 11.1% cost of equity; after-tax cost of debt 6.1%; weighted, 10.4%.

Use 10.4%
Equity value $26.13b ▲ above market cap $18.79b
Base case value per share $251.08 equity value ÷ 104.06m shares
Current price $180.61 market price per share
Above today’s price 39.0% upside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$1.16b 10 years of cash to equity+$24.59b terminal value+$385.62m net cash=$26.13b equity value÷104.06m shares=$251.08 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Aerospace & Defense).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 40.11× 62.23× 62.23× 36% below 31.60× 27% above
P/FCF 38.83× 33.44× 33.44× 16% above 33.23× 17% above
P/B 47.52× 81.15× 41.25× 15% above 2.99× 1487% above
EV/EBITDA 23.60× 20.98× 16.02× 47% above 19.00× 24% above
EV/Sales 6.91× 7.56× 7.82× 12% below 3.37× 105% above
19.58×74.34×129.09×183.85×10Y avg 62.23×20182019202320252026

FTAI trades at 40.11× P/E, against a 10-year average of 62.23× (range 6.33×–201.17×). That is cheaper than 50% of the last 4 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $280.19 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.