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Ferguson plc

FERG Industrials Industrial Distribution

Ferguson plc’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended July 2025) was $30.8 billion, up 3.80% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+4.64%
EPS
+7.17%
Free cash flow
−143.5%
Total debt
+30.7%

Quarter to June 2026, against a year earlier

235.91 12.62 −5.08%
Market cap
$45.6B
P/E
19.6×
Fwd P/E
21.5×
Dividend yield
1.51%
F-score
7/9
Altman Z
25.44
Beneish M
−2.42
Dividend safety
81/100
Overview Business Profile
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios
Valuation Filings

Ferguson plc (FERG) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $235.91 the price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 16.0% a year for ten years.

Free cash flow after share-based pay grew 8.6% a year over the last ten years, 4.4% over the last five. The price asks for about twice its ten-year rate. The industry’s median company is priced for 13.7%.

In July 2021 the price assumed 2.7% a year; Ferguson plc went on to grow free cash flow after share-based pay 12.3% a year to FY2025.

Price implies
16.0%
Last 5 years, reported
4.4%
Last 10 years, reported
8.6%
Industry median implies
13.7%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ free cash flow after share-based pay at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
16.0% a year for ten years
$235.91
today’s price
Its base case
8.6% a year for five years, then 5.1%
$108.86
53.9% below today’s price

Both are growth in free cash flow after share-based pay, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Ferguson plc’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Cash flow to equity
the four quarters to June 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings, before share-based pay

Yearly growth in cash flow. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 16.0% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

Diluted shares outstanding. Net debt, under Advanced inputs, is taken off before dividing.

Advanced inputs
Free cash flow Revenue and margin
negative is net cash
new shares the cash flow does not pay for

Against Ferguson plc’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 1.11 × equity premium 4.5% = 9.3% cost of equity; weighted, 9.3%.

Use 9.3%
Equity value $21.35b ▼ below market cap $46.27b
Base case value per share $108.86 equity value ÷ 196.15m shares
Current price $235.91 market price per share
Below today’s price 53.9% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$10.84b 10 years of cash to equity+$14.98b terminal value−$4.47b net debt=$21.35b equity value÷196.15m shares=$108.86 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Industrial Distribution).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 19.61× 25.04× 16.81× 17% above 25.87× 24% below
P/FCF 36.12× 23.24× 18.65× 94% above 18.74× 93% above
P/B 7.37× 7.16× 6.35× 16% above 3.44× 114% above
EV/EBITDA 13.65× 13.06× 11.76× 16% above 13.98× 2% below
EV/Sales 1.53× 1.40× 1.20× 27% above 1.26× 21% above
P/E P/FCF P/B EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
6.38×9.42×12.46×15.50×10Y avg 11.76×202020222023202420252026

FERG trades at 13.65× EV/EBITDA, against a 10-year average of 11.76× (range 5.28×–16.21×). That is dearer than 60% of the last 5 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $200.20 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.