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Churchill Downs, Incorporated

CHDN Consumer Cyclical Gambling

Churchill Downs, Incorporated’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $2.9 billion, up 7.01% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+1.90%
EPS
+111.7%
Free cash flow
+252.7%
Total debt
−7.52%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

98.25 0.25 +0.26%
Market cap
$6.7B
P/E
15.2×
Fwd P/E
14.0×
Dividend yield
0.45%
F-score
6/9
Altman Z
1.59
Beneish M
−2.74
Dividend safety
74/100
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios
Segments Valuation Filings

Churchill Downs, Incorporated (CHDN) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $98.25 the price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 7.4% a year for ten years.

Free cash flow after share-based pay grew 2.0% a year over the last ten years, 20.1% over the last five. The price asks for about four times its ten-year rate. The industry’s median company is priced for 9.6%.

In December 2017 the price assumed 15.7% a year; Churchill Downs, Incorporated went on to grow free cash flow after share-based pay 18.7% a year to FY2025.

Price implies
7.4%
Last 5 years, reported
20.1%
Last 10 years, reported
2.0%
Industry median implies
9.6%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ free cash flow after share-based pay at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
7.4% a year for ten years
$98.25
today’s price
Its base case
2.0% a year for five years, then 1.2%
$41.63
57.6% below today’s price

Both are growth in free cash flow after share-based pay, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Churchill Downs, Incorporated’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Cash flow to equity
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings, before share-based pay

Yearly growth in cash flow. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 7.4% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

Diluted shares outstanding. Net debt, under Advanced inputs, is taken off before dividing.

Advanced inputs
Free cash flow Revenue and margin
negative is net cash
new shares the cash flow does not pay for

Against Churchill Downs, Incorporated’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.77 × equity premium 4.5% = 7.8% cost of equity; weighted, 7.8%.

Use 7.8%
Equity value $2.93b ▼ below market cap $6.92b
Base case value per share $41.63 equity value ÷ 70.45m shares
Current price $98.25 market price per share
Below today’s price 57.6% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$3.50b 10 years of cash to equity+$3.90b terminal value−$4.46b net debt=$2.93b equity value÷70.45m shares=$41.63 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Gambling).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 15.25× 20.48× 23.93× 36% below 15.25× 0% above
P/FCF 22.11× 50.95× 45.98× 52% below 15.25× 45% above
P/B 4.99× 9.58× 12.28× 59% below 2.25× 121% above
EV/EBITDA 11.25× 17.83× 23.09× 51% below 6.93× 62% above
EV/Sales 3.77× 5.27× 5.64× 33% below 1.43× 164% above
P/E P/FCF P/B EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
7.83×14.69×21.54×28.40×10Y avg 12.28×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

CHDN trades at 4.99× P/B, against a 10-year average of 12.28× (range 4.99×–30.31×). That is cheaper than 100% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $241.84 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.