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Friday 6 November 2026 Export AJG’s income statement to Excel — free account

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

AJG Financial Insurance Brokers

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $13.9 billion, up 20.7% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+18.1%
EPS
+49.2%
Free cash flow
+91.2%
Total debt
−3.02%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

281.85 6.26 −2.17%
Market cap
$73.9B
P/E
43.4×
Fwd P/E
38.3×
Dividend yield
0.96%
F-score
6/9
Altman Z
n/a
Beneish M
n/a
Dividend safety
n/a
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
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Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $281.85 the price implies 48.9% a year of dividend growth, at a 9.0% cost of equity.

The dividend a share grew 5.6% a year over the last ten years, 7.6% over the last five. The price asks for more than four times its ten-year rate. Return on equity averaged 11.6% over ten years; the price implies 22.0% for good.

In December 2017 the price assumed 15.1% a year; Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. went on to grow the dividend a share 11.3% a year to FY2025.

Price implies
48.9%
Last 5 years, reported
7.6%
Last 10 years, reported
5.6%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ the dividend a share at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
48.9% a year for ten years
$281.85
today’s price
Its base case
5.6% a year for five years, then 3.4%
$11.96
95.8% below today’s price

Both are growth in the dividend a share, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Dividends
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in the dividend. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies the dividend a share growing 48.9% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

The model is a share’s own: no debt to take off and no shares to divide among.

Advanced inputs

Against Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.47 × equity premium 4.5% = 6.4% cost of equity; weighted, 6.4%.

Use 6.4%
Base case value per share $11.96 ten years discounted, and what follows
Current price $281.85 market price per share
Below today’s price 95.8% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$5.29 10 years of dividends+$6.66 terminal value=$11.96 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Insurance Brokers).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 43.38× 43.29× 35.20× 23% above 22.14× 96% above
P/FCF 32.32× 30.80× 24.84× 30% above 22.32× 45% above
P/B 3.07× 3.55× 3.45× 11% below 3.02× 1% above
EV/EBITDA — 21.22× 17.49× — 3.38× —
EV/Sales — 5.13× 3.74× — 3.90× —
P/E P/FCF P/B EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
16.01×22.58×29.14×35.70×10Y avg 24.84×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

AJG trades at 32.32× P/FCF, against a 10-year average of 24.84× (range 13.84×–37.13×). That is dearer than 78% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $216.61 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.