Alcoa

AA Basic Materials Aluminum

Alcoa’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $12.8 billion, up 7.87% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue grew 31.4%, EPS grew 144.4%, free cash flow grew 18.5% and total debt fell 16.0%, each against the same quarter a year earlier. Dividend growth for five consecutive years.

41.46 1.04 +2.57%
Market cap
$10.7B
P/E
8.5×
Fwd P/E
9.6×
Dividend yield
0.96%
F-score
7/9
Altman Z
1.75
Beneish M
−2.41
Dividend safety
78/100

Insider Decisions trades per month

Total sells 1.35
Totals in millions of $.
Dec 25 Mar 26 Jun 26 Sep 26
Buy — — — — — — — — — — — —
Sell — — — — — — — — 1 3 — —
Insider Ownership 0.57%

Capital & Financial Ratios $m

Market Cap 10,670.00
Revenue 13,603.00
Net Income 1,246.00
Free Cash Flow 362.00
Net Debt 873.00
Current Ratio 1.54 (at or above 1.5: strong)
Debt/Equity 0.30 (at or below 0.5: strong)
P/E ratio 8.48
Fwd P/E 9.62
P/S ratio 0.80
P/B ratio 1.49
Past 5Y EPS Growth —
This Y EPS Growth 75.01% (at or above 15%: strong)
Next Y EPS Growth (9.34%) (below 0%: weak)
Next Y revenue growth 16.05% (at or above 10%: strong)
Next 5Y EPS Growth 16.57% (at or above 15%: strong)

Green and red mark values outside typical ranges. How we judge →

Valuation vs history

P/E against its own 10 years 12.65%
10-year low 10-year high
P/S against its own 10 years 79.72%
10-year low 10-year high
P/B against its own 10 years 77.94%
10-year low 10-year high
EV/Sales against its own 10 years 81.98%
10-year low 10-year high
EV/FCF against its own 10 years 77.17%
10-year low 10-year high

Dividends

Payout Ratio 0.08
Annual Dividend Rate 0.40
Annual Dividend Yield 0.96%
total individual payouts
2028 Powerpack
2027 Powerpack
2026 0.40
0.10
0.10
0.10
2025 0.40
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
2024 0.40
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
2023 0.40
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
2022 0.40
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
2021 0.10
0.10
2020 Powerpack
2019 Powerpack
2018 Powerpack
2017 Powerpack
2016 0.40
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.09
0.09
predictions special payouts not included in total or ratios

Assets vs Liabilities $m

2023 2024 2025 Q'26
Cash 944 1,138 1,597 1,352
Receivables 808 1,239 1,268 1,714
Inventory 2,158 1,998 2,177 2,340
Other 29 25 49 83
4,405 4,914 5,469 5,885
2023 2024 2025 Q'26
Payables 1,714 1,805 1,938 1,860
ST’ Debt 79 75 1 1
Other 792 1,051 1,185 1,328
3,030 3,395 3,801 3,834

Compound Annual Growth %

10y 5y 3y
Sales 1.37% 6.68% 1.01%
Cash Flow 3.08% 24.64% 12.97%
Earnings 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Book Value (6.13%) 4.05% (2.44%)

Revenue $m

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 3,193 3,966 — — —
’25 3,369 3,018 2,995 3,449 12,831
’24 2,599 2,906 2,904 3,486 11,895
’23 2,670 2,684 2,602 2,595 10,551
’22 3,293 3,644 2,851 2,663 12,451
’21 2,870 2,833 3,109 3,340 12,152
’20 2,381 2,148 2,365 2,392 9,286
Fiscal quarters ending in the months shown.

Operating Cash Flow $m

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 (179) 608 — — —
’25 75 488 85 537 1,185
’24 (223) 287 143 415 622
’23 (163) (13) 69 198 91
’22 34 536 134 118 822
’21 6 (86) 435 565 920
’20 (90) 288 158 38 394
Fiscal quarters ending in the months shown.

Free Cash Flow $m

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 (294) 423 — — —
’25 (18) 357 (63) 296 572
’24 (323) 124 (3) 247 45
’23 (245) (127) (76) 12 (436)
’22 (38) 431 7 (53) 347
’21 522 (51) 362 663 1,496
’20 18 211 83 (73) 239
Fiscal quarters ending in the months shown.

EPS $

Mar Jun Sep Dec Year
’26 1.60 1.53 — — —
’25 2.07 0.62 0.88 0.85 4.42
’24 (1.41) 0.11 0.38 0.76 0.26
’23 (1.30) (0.57) (0.94) (0.84) (3.65)
’22 2.49 2.95 (4.17) (2.12) (0.57)
’21 0.93 1.63 1.76 (2.11) 2.26
’20 0.43 (1.06) (0.26) (0.02) (0.91)
Fiscal quarters ending in the months shown.

Target Price Range

Analyst price targets

Recommendation Rating

1.9
1Buy 2 3Hold 4 5Sell

Ten years at a glance Fiscal years to December

Group Line 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Trend 2026e 2027e 2028e
Price, $
Price, $ Low 14.75 28.17 25.01 16.46 5.16 17.30 33.55 23.07 24.86 21.53

Analyst estimates 2026–2028

Powerpack
High 32.35 54.61 62.35 31.45 24.17 61.59 98.09 57.61 47.77 54.82
People
People Employees 14,000 14,600 14,000 13,800 12,900 12,200 13,100 13,600 13,900 14,900
Revenue/emp, $m 0.67 0.80 0.96 0.76 0.72 1.00 0.95 0.78 0.86 0.86
Income, $m
Income, $m Revenue 9,318 11,652 13,403 10,433 9,286 12,152 12,451 10,551 11,895 12,831
Gross margin, % 15.46 23.19 24.99 18.17 14.18 24.68 17.98 6.99 15.56 16.94
EBT (162) 1,200 1,625 (438) 173 1,199 702 (584) 289 1,064
EBT margin, % (1.74) 10.30 12.12 (4.20) 1.86 9.87 5.64 (5.54) 2.43 8.29
Net income (346) 608 893 (853) (14) 570 38 (773) 24 1,119
Depreciation 718 752 733 713 653 664 617 632 642 767
Per share, $
Per share, $ Revenue 50.92 63.33 72.06 56.39 49.92 65.33 68.79 59.28 56.11 49.54
Earnings (2.19) 1.18 1.22 (6.07) (0.91) 2.30 (0.57) (3.65) 0.26 4.45
Cash flow (1.70) 6.65 2.41 3.71 2.12 4.95 4.54 0.51 2.93 4.58
Capex (1.60) (0.87) (2.14) (1.92) (0.83) 3.10 (2.62) (2.96) (2.72) (2.37)
Free cash flow (3.30) 5.78 0.27 1.78 1.28 8.04 1.92 (2.45) 0.21 2.21
Book value 42.06 36.95 40.80 31.82 26.97 33.78 36.40 32.84 24.33 23.62
Shares, m 183 184 186 185 186 186 181 178 212 259
Valuation, ×
Valuation, × P/E 0.00 46.36 21.79 0.00 0.00 26.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.94
P/S 0.57 0.87 0.37 0.38 0.46 0.91 0.65 0.56 0.67 1.07
P/B 0.69 1.49 0.65 0.68 0.85 1.76 1.22 1.01 1.55 2.25
EV/Sales 0.63 0.88 0.42 0.47 0.55 0.90 0.68 0.64 0.79 1.14
EV/FCF (9.73) 9.58 112.66 14.85 21.53 7.35 24.53 (15.59) 209.25 25.53
Cash, $m
Cash, $m Operating cash flow (311) 1,224 448 686 394 920 822 91 622 1,185
Capex (292) (160) (398) (356) (155) 576 (475) (527) (577) (613)
Free cash flow (603) 1,064 50 330 239 1,496 347 (436) 45 572
Balance, $m
Balance, $m Working capital 360 986 1,409 967 1,759 1,803 2,246 1,375 1,519 1,668
Total debt 1,445 1,404 1,802 1,800 2,465 1,727 1,807 1,811 2,545 2,439
Net debt 592 46 689 921 858 (87) 444 867 1,407 842
Shareholders’ equity 7,697 6,798 7,588 5,886 5,016 6,284 6,589 5,845 5,157 6,118
Returns, %
Returns, % ROA (2.41) 1.63 1.49 (7.31) (1.15) 2.87 (0.83) (4.50) 0.43 7.66
ROIC 0.12 12.15 13.67 (1.42) 3.48 9.57 6.13 (3.19) 5.10 1.48
ROE (4.16) 3.85 3.48 (16.70) (3.12) 7.59 (1.91) (10.47) 1.09 20.52
Negative figures in brackets.

All 10 years →

Fiscal years to Dec 2025 · latest quarter Jun 2026

Charts ten years each

Alcoa vs peers in the Basic Materials sector (Q) = latest quarter vs a year earlier

Company Market cap P/E Fwd P/E Revenue growth (Q) EPS growth (Q) FCF growth (Q) Gross margin (Q) EBIT margin (Q) Compare
ALB Albemarle Corporation $11.6B 199× 14.9× +31.08% (above 0%: growing) n/m +708.43% (above 0%: growing) 33.86% 25.98% Compare
TX Ternium S.A. $11.2B 16.0× 9.2× +9.97% (above 0%: growing) +59.09% (above 0%: growing) −174.72% (below 0%: shrinking) 21.68% 12.17% Compare
HBM HudBay Minerals Inc $10.8B 13.9× 14.4× +17.69% (above 0%: growing) +13.33% (above 0%: growing) +4.51% (above 0%: growing) 42.61% 34.80% Compare
AA Alcoa $10.7B 8.5× 9.6× +31.41% (above 0%: growing) +144.44% (above 0%: growing) +18.49% (above 0%: growing) 25.19% 18.10%
HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited $10.7B 52.5× 3.6× −3.10% (below 0%: shrinking) n/m +265.24% (above 0%: growing) 26.37% 0.00% Compare
HL Hecla Mining Company $10.5B 30.6× 16.9× +52.45% (above 0%: growing) +100.00% (above 0%: growing) +13.92% (above 0%: growing) 64.87% 43.64% Compare
SUZ Suzano S.A. Sponsored ADR $10.3B 4.3× — −2.26% (below 0%: shrinking) −59.15% (below 0%: shrinking) +85.24% (above 0%: growing) 24.41% 24.06% Compare
SSL Sasol Ltd. $10.1B 3.5× 5.2× −5.20% (below 0%: shrinking) +20.86% (above 0%: growing) +6,912.65% (above 0%: growing) 31.35% 0.00% Compare
SOLS Solstice Advanced Materials Inc. $9.5B 27.4× 27.8× +11.13% (above 0%: growing) −14.99% (below 0%: shrinking) +70.83% (above 0%: growing) 32.23% 17.16% Compare
Median of peers $10.6B 21.7× 14.4× +10.55% +17.10% +78.04% 31.79% 20.61%

All 261 Basic Materials stocks →

Alcoa (AA) key facts

  • Strength: Alcoa’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $12.8 billion, up 7.87% from fiscal 2024.
  • Alcoa (AA) is an Aluminum company in the Basic Materials sector, listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
  • As of October 16, 2026, AA traded at $41.46, a market capitalization of $10.7 billion.
  • Alcoa pays an annual dividend of $0.40 per share, a yield of 0.96%, with a payout ratio of 8.23%.
  • Return on equity was 20.5% and debt-to-equity 0.30.
  • Its Piotroski F-score is 7 out of 9 and its Altman Z-score is 1.75 (distress zone) for fiscal 2025.

Source: company filings (standardised) and stockrow calculations.

Alcoa (AA) Latest News

27 Aug

Impact 2 · transcript
stockrow.com/AA · Data as of Jun 30, 2026 · For information only; not investment advice. · © 2026 stockrow.com