Saturday 17 October 2026
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Alcoa
Alcoa’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $12.8 billion, up 7.87% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue grew 31.4%, EPS grew 144.4%, free cash flow grew 18.5% and total debt fell 16.0%, each against the same quarter a year earlier. Dividend growth for five consecutive years.
41.46
1.04
+2.57%
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Target Price Range
Analyst price targets
Free accountTen years at a glance Fiscal years to December
| Group | Line | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Trend | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price, $ | |||||||||||||||
| Price, $ | Low | 14.75 | 28.17 | 25.01 | 16.46 | 5.16 | 17.30 | 33.55 | 23.07 | 24.86 | 21.53 |
Analyst estimates 2026–2028 Powerpack |
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| High | 32.35 | 54.61 | 62.35 | 31.45 | 24.17 | 61.59 | 98.09 | 57.61 | 47.77 | 54.82 | |||||
| People | |||||||||||||||
| People | Employees | 14,000 | 14,600 | 14,000 | 13,800 | 12,900 | 12,200 | 13,100 | 13,600 | 13,900 | 14,900 | ||||
| Revenue/emp, $m | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.96 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 1.00 | 0.95 | 0.78 | 0.86 | 0.86 | |||||
| Income, $m | |||||||||||||||
| Income, $m | Revenue | 9,318 | 11,652 | 13,403 | 10,433 | 9,286 | 12,152 | 12,451 | 10,551 | 11,895 | 12,831 | ||||
| Gross margin, % | 15.46 | 23.19 | 24.99 | 18.17 | 14.18 | 24.68 | 17.98 | 6.99 | 15.56 | 16.94 | |||||
| EBT | (162) | 1,200 | 1,625 | (438) | 173 | 1,199 | 702 | (584) | 289 | 1,064 | |||||
| EBT margin, % | (1.74) | 10.30 | 12.12 | (4.20) | 1.86 | 9.87 | 5.64 | (5.54) | 2.43 | 8.29 | |||||
| Net income | (346) | 608 | 893 | (853) | (14) | 570 | 38 | (773) | 24 | 1,119 | |||||
| Depreciation | 718 | 752 | 733 | 713 | 653 | 664 | 617 | 632 | 642 | 767 | |||||
| Per share, $ | |||||||||||||||
| Per share, $ | Revenue | 50.92 | 63.33 | 72.06 | 56.39 | 49.92 | 65.33 | 68.79 | 59.28 | 56.11 | 49.54 | ||||
| Earnings | (2.19) | 1.18 | 1.22 | (6.07) | (0.91) | 2.30 | (0.57) | (3.65) | 0.26 | 4.45 | |||||
| Cash flow | (1.70) | 6.65 | 2.41 | 3.71 | 2.12 | 4.95 | 4.54 | 0.51 | 2.93 | 4.58 | |||||
| Capex | (1.60) | (0.87) | (2.14) | (1.92) | (0.83) | 3.10 | (2.62) | (2.96) | (2.72) | (2.37) | |||||
| Free cash flow | (3.30) | 5.78 | 0.27 | 1.78 | 1.28 | 8.04 | 1.92 | (2.45) | 0.21 | 2.21 | |||||
| Book value | 42.06 | 36.95 | 40.80 | 31.82 | 26.97 | 33.78 | 36.40 | 32.84 | 24.33 | 23.62 | |||||
| Shares, m | 183 | 184 | 186 | 185 | 186 | 186 | 181 | 178 | 212 | 259 | |||||
| Valuation, × | |||||||||||||||
| Valuation, × | P/E | 0.00 | 46.36 | 21.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 26.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.94 | ||||
| P/S | 0.57 | 0.87 | 0.37 | 0.38 | 0.46 | 0.91 | 0.65 | 0.56 | 0.67 | 1.07 | |||||
| P/B | 0.69 | 1.49 | 0.65 | 0.68 | 0.85 | 1.76 | 1.22 | 1.01 | 1.55 | 2.25 | |||||
| EV/Sales | 0.63 | 0.88 | 0.42 | 0.47 | 0.55 | 0.90 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.79 | 1.14 | |||||
| EV/FCF | (9.73) | 9.58 | 112.66 | 14.85 | 21.53 | 7.35 | 24.53 | (15.59) | 209.25 | 25.53 | |||||
| Cash, $m | |||||||||||||||
| Cash, $m | Operating cash flow | (311) | 1,224 | 448 | 686 | 394 | 920 | 822 | 91 | 622 | 1,185 | ||||
| Capex | (292) | (160) | (398) | (356) | (155) | 576 | (475) | (527) | (577) | (613) | |||||
| Free cash flow | (603) | 1,064 | 50 | 330 | 239 | 1,496 | 347 | (436) | 45 | 572 | |||||
| Balance, $m | |||||||||||||||
| Balance, $m | Working capital | 360 | 986 | 1,409 | 967 | 1,759 | 1,803 | 2,246 | 1,375 | 1,519 | 1,668 | ||||
| Total debt | 1,445 | 1,404 | 1,802 | 1,800 | 2,465 | 1,727 | 1,807 | 1,811 | 2,545 | 2,439 | |||||
| Net debt | 592 | 46 | 689 | 921 | 858 | (87) | 444 | 867 | 1,407 | 842 | |||||
| Shareholders’ equity | 7,697 | 6,798 | 7,588 | 5,886 | 5,016 | 6,284 | 6,589 | 5,845 | 5,157 | 6,118 | |||||
| Returns, % | |||||||||||||||
| Returns, % | ROA | (2.41) | 1.63 | 1.49 | (7.31) | (1.15) | 2.87 | (0.83) | (4.50) | 0.43 | 7.66 | ||||
| ROIC | 0.12 | 12.15 | 13.67 | (1.42) | 3.48 | 9.57 | 6.13 | (3.19) | 5.10 | 1.48 | |||||
| ROE | (4.16) | 3.85 | 3.48 | (16.70) | (3.12) | 7.59 | (1.91) | (10.47) | 1.09 | 20.52 | |||||
Negative figures in brackets.
Fiscal years to Dec 2025 · latest quarter Jun 2026
Charts ten years each
Alcoa vs peers in the Basic Materials sector (Q) = latest quarter vs a year earlier
| Company | Market cap | P/E | Fwd P/E | Revenue growth (Q) | EPS growth (Q) | FCF growth (Q) | Gross margin (Q) | EBIT margin (Q) | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALB Albemarle Corporation | $11.6B | 199× | 14.9× | +31.08% (above 0%: growing) | n/m | +708.43% (above 0%: growing) | 33.86% | 25.98% | Compare |
| TX Ternium S.A. | $11.2B | 16.0× | 9.2× | +9.97% (above 0%: growing) | +59.09% (above 0%: growing) | −174.72% (below 0%: shrinking) | 21.68% | 12.17% | Compare |
| HBM HudBay Minerals Inc | $10.8B | 13.9× | 14.4× | +17.69% (above 0%: growing) | +13.33% (above 0%: growing) | +4.51% (above 0%: growing) | 42.61% | 34.80% | Compare |
| AA Alcoa | $10.7B | 8.5× | 9.6× | +31.41% (above 0%: growing) | +144.44% (above 0%: growing) | +18.49% (above 0%: growing) | 25.19% | 18.10% | |
| HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited | $10.7B | 52.5× | 3.6× | −3.10% (below 0%: shrinking) | n/m | +265.24% (above 0%: growing) | 26.37% | 0.00% | Compare |
| HL Hecla Mining Company | $10.5B | 30.6× | 16.9× | +52.45% (above 0%: growing) | +100.00% (above 0%: growing) | +13.92% (above 0%: growing) | 64.87% | 43.64% | Compare |
| SUZ Suzano S.A. Sponsored ADR | $10.3B | 4.3× | — | −2.26% (below 0%: shrinking) | −59.15% (below 0%: shrinking) | +85.24% (above 0%: growing) | 24.41% | 24.06% | Compare |
| SSL Sasol Ltd. | $10.1B | 3.5× | 5.2× | −5.20% (below 0%: shrinking) | +20.86% (above 0%: growing) | +6,912.65% (above 0%: growing) | 31.35% | 0.00% | Compare |
| SOLS Solstice Advanced Materials Inc. | $9.5B | 27.4× | 27.8× | +11.13% (above 0%: growing) | −14.99% (below 0%: shrinking) | +70.83% (above 0%: growing) | 32.23% | 17.16% | Compare |
| Median of peers | $10.6B | 21.7× | 14.4× | +10.55% | +17.10% | +78.04% | 31.79% | 20.61% |
Alcoa (AA) key facts
- Strength: Alcoa’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $12.8 billion, up 7.87% from fiscal 2024.
- Alcoa (AA) is an Aluminum company in the Basic Materials sector, listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
- As of October 16, 2026, AA traded at $41.46, a market capitalization of $10.7 billion.
- Alcoa pays an annual dividend of $0.40 per share, a yield of 0.96%, with a payout ratio of 8.23%.
- Return on equity was 20.5% and debt-to-equity 0.30.
- Its Piotroski F-score is 7 out of 9 and its Altman Z-score is 1.75 (distress zone) for fiscal 2025.