Valvoline
VVV Consumer Cyclical Auto & Truck Dealerships
Valvoline’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended September 2025) was $1.7 billion, up 5.64% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue grew 24.1%, EPS grew 15.9%, free cash flow grew 110.3% and total debt rose 48.4%, each against the same quarter a year earlier. Dividend growth for five consecutive years, revenue growth for five, operating cash flow growth for three; insiders bought in the last twelve months.
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Valvoline (VVV) Beneish M-score
Valvoline's Beneish M-score for fiscal 2025 is −2.59; values above −1.78 are the model's flag for possible earnings manipulation — a statistical screen, not a finding.
Beneish M-score, annual
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Annual newest first
| Period | Beneish M-score | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | −2.59 | (0.21) |
| FY2024 | −2.38 | (0.61) |
| FY2023 | −1.77 | 1.00 |
| FY2022 | −2.77 | 0.22 |
| FY2021 | −3.00 | (1.69) |
| FY2020 | −1.30 | 1.42 |
| FY2019 | −2.72 | 0.13 |
| FY2018 | −2.85 | (1.40) |
| FY2017 | −1.45 | 1.16 |
| FY2016 | −2.61 | — |
How fiscal 2025’s score is made up
| Component | This year | Year before | Result | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days’ sales in receivables index | 0.98 | — | 0.90 | |
| Gross margin index | 0.99 | — | 0.52 | |
| Asset quality index | 0.96 | — | 0.39 | |
| Sales growth index | 1.06 | — | 0.94 | |
| Depreciation index | 1.04 | — | 0.12 | |
| SG&A index | 1.09 | — | −0.19 | |
| Total accruals to total assets | (0.03) | — | −0.14 | |
| Leverage index | 0.90 | — | −0.29 | |
| Beneish M-score | Low — no pattern the model associates with manipulation | −2.59 | ||
How the Beneish M-score works
M = −4.84 + 0.920 × DSRI + 0.528 × GMI + 0.404 × AQI + 0.892 × SGI + 0.115 × DEPI − 0.172 × SGAI + 4.679 × TATA − 0.327 × LVGI (Beneish, 1999): eight changes in the accounts from one fiscal year to the next, which the model weighs for the pattern seen in companies that later restated their earnings. Higher is worse.
| below −2.22 | Low — no pattern the model associates with manipulation |
|---|---|
| −2.22 to −1.78 | Elevated |
| above −1.78 | Flagged by the model |
−1.78 is the cut-off usually quoted from the paper, −2.22 a common conservative one. A statistical screen, not a finding of wrongdoing.
When asset quality, depreciation or SG&A cannot be worked out, that index is set to 1, as Beneish did, and the breakdown says so; with all three missing there is no score. Depreciation includes amortisation, and asset quality leaves out securities. Not worked out for banks, insurers and REITs.
Beneish M-score against peers
| Company | Beneish M-score |
|---|---|
| RUSHA Rush Enterprises, Inc. compare | −3.2× |
| RUSHB Rush Enterprises, Inc. compare | −3.2× |
| CARG CarGurus, Inc. compare | −3.2× |
| GPI Group 1 Automotive, Inc. compare | −2.7× |
| ABG Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. compare | −2.6× |
| VVV Valvoline | −2.6× |
| OPLN OPENLANE, Inc. compare | −2.6× |
| LAD Lithia Motors, Inc. compare | −2.4× |
| AN AutoNation, Inc. compare | −2.4× |
What Beneish M-score is
The Beneish M-Score combines eight year-on-year changes in the accounts into a statistical screen for patterns seen in companies that overstated earnings.
−4.84 + 0.920 × DSRI + 0.528 × GMI + 0.404 × AQI + 0.892 × SGI + 0.115 × DEPI − 0.172 × SGAI + 4.679 × TATA − 0.327 × LVGI