Valvoline
VVV Consumer Cyclical Auto & Truck Dealerships
Valvoline’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended September 2025) was $1.7 billion, up 5.64% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to June 2026, revenue grew 24.1%, EPS grew 15.9%, free cash flow grew 110.3% and total debt rose 48.4%, each against the same quarter a year earlier. Dividend growth for five consecutive years, revenue growth for five, operating cash flow growth for three; insiders bought in the last twelve months.
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Valvoline (VVV) Altman Z-score
Valvoline's Altman Z-score for fiscal 2025 is 2.40, in the grey zone (1.81–2.99).
Altman Z-score, annual
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Annual newest first
| Period | Altman Z-score | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2.40 | (0.23) |
| FY2024 | 2.63 | 0.38 |
| FY2023 | 2.25 | 0.44 |
| FY2022 | 1.81 | (0.09) |
| FY2021 | 1.91 | 0.47 |
| FY2020 | 1.44 | (1.46) |
| FY2019 | 2.90 | (0.09) |
| FY2018 | 2.99 | (0.27) |
| FY2017 | 3.25 | — |
How fiscal 2025’s score is made up
| Component | This year | Year before | Result | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Working capital / total assets | (0.04) | — | −0.05 | |
| Retained earnings / total assets | 0.10 | — | 0.14 | |
| EBIT / total assets | 0.15 | — | 0.48 | |
| Market value of equity / total liabilities | 1.97 | — | 1.18 | |
| Sales / total assets | 0.64 | — | 0.64 | |
| Altman Z-score | Grey zone | 2.40 | ||
| Z″ Variant for non-manufacturing and asset-light companies (drops the sales/assets term, uses book equity) | Grey zone | 1.21 | ||
How the Altman Z-score works
Z = 1.2 × working capital ÷ total assets + 1.4 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 3.3 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 0.6 × market value of equity ÷ total liabilities + 1.0 × revenue ÷ total assets (Altman, 1968). The market value of equity is the close on the last trading day of the fiscal year times weighted basic shares.
Z″ = 6.56 × working capital ÷ total assets + 3.26 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 6.72 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 1.05 × book equity ÷ total liabilities (Altman, Hartzell and Peck, 1995), the variant for non-manufacturing and asset-light companies.
| Zone | Z | Z″ |
|---|---|---|
| Safe zone | above 2.99 | above 2.60 |
| Grey zone | 1.81–2.99 | 1.10–2.60 |
| Distress zone | below 1.81 | below 1.10 |
Not worked out for banks, insurers and REITs, whose balance sheets the model does not describe, nor when a figure is missing or there is no share price in the week to the fiscal year end.
Altman Z-score against peers
| Company | Altman Z-score |
|---|---|
| CARG CarGurus, Inc. compare | 11.6× |
| RUSHB Rush Enterprises, Inc. compare | 3.9× |
| RUSHA Rush Enterprises, Inc. compare | 3.9× |
| GPI Group 1 Automotive, Inc. compare | 3.4× |
| AN AutoNation, Inc. compare | 3.1× |
| ABG Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. compare | 2.6× |
| VVV Valvoline | 2.4× |
| LAD Lithia Motors, Inc. compare | 2.4× |
| OPLN OPENLANE, Inc. compare | 1.4× |
What Altman Z-score is
The Altman Z-Score weighs working capital, retained earnings, operating profit, market value and sales against assets and debts to gauge the risk of distress.
1.2 × working capital ÷ total assets + 1.4 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 3.3 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 0.6 × market value of equity ÷ total liabilities + 1.0 × revenue ÷ total assets