Pricing Log in Create free account
Wednesday 4 November 2026 Export VST’s income statement to Excel — free account

Vistra Corp.

VST Utilities Utilities Independent Power Producers

Vistra Corp.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $17.7 billion, up 2.98% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
−5.48%
EPS
−6.10%
Free cash flow
+401.7%
Total debt
+17.8%

Quarter to June 2026, against a year earlier

119.37 20.22 −14.49%
Market cap
$46.9B
P/E
23.2×
Fwd P/E
14.9×
Dividend yield
0.66%
F-score
5/9
Altman Z
1.40
Beneish M
−2.54
Dividend safety
59/100
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios
Segments Valuation Filings

Vistra Corp. (VST) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $119.37 the price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 9.2% a year for ten years.

Free cash flow after share-based pay grew 49.5% a year over the last five years. The price asks for less than its five-year rate. The industry’s median company is priced for 24.1%.

In December 2017 the price assumed 4.4% a year; Vistra Corp. went on to grow free cash flow after share-based pay 2.6% a year to FY2025.

Price implies
9.2%
Last 5 years, reported
49.5%
Industry median implies
24.1%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ free cash flow after share-based pay at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
9.2% a year for ten years
$119.37
today’s price
Its base case
25.0% a year for five years, then 15.0%
$346.57
190.3% above today’s price

Both are growth in free cash flow after share-based pay, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Vistra Corp.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Cash flow to equity
the four quarters to June 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings, before share-based pay

Yearly growth in cash flow. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 9.2% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

Diluted shares outstanding. Net debt, under Advanced inputs, is taken off before dividing.

Advanced inputs
Free cash flow Revenue and margin
negative is net cash
new shares the cash flow does not pay for

Against Vistra Corp.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 1.38 × equity premium 4.5% = 10.5% cost of equity; weighted, 10.5%.

Use 10.5%
Equity value $118.85b ▲ above market cap $40.94b
Base case value per share $346.57 equity value ÷ 342.94m shares
Current price $119.37 market price per share
Above today’s price 190.3% upside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$44.34b 10 years of cash to equity+$93.63b terminal value−$19.12b net debt=$118.85b equity value÷342.94m shares=$346.57 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Utilities Independent Power Producers).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 23.22× 28.13× 21.88× 6% above 25.64× 9% below
P/FCF 19.36× 16.67× 13.55× 43% above 41.02× 53% below
P/B 15.55× 11.96× 6.68× 133% above 2.78× 459% above
EV/EBITDA 10.42× 12.98× 13.50× 23% below 13.70× 24% below
EV/Sales 3.44× 2.89× 2.39× 44% above 3.44× 0% above
P/E P/FCF P/B EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
9.61×28.67×47.72×66.78×10Y avg 21.88×2016201920202023202420252026

VST trades at 23.22× P/E, against a 10-year average of 21.88× (range 0.29×–72.67×). That is dearer than 83% of the last 6 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $112.48 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.