Vistra Corp. (VST) Earnings & Analysis

Latest quarter

Vistra reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $4.0 billion, compared with the consensus of $6.3 billion, while adjusted EPS of $1.80 exceeded the $1.54 consensus. The company reported that revenue was down −5.48% from $4.3 billion in Q2 FY2025 and said operating revenues declined primarily because of a $611 million increase in unrealized mark-to-market losses on commodity derivatives.

The filing said higher retail contractual rates, higher wholesale capacity and energy revenue, and acquired plants partly offset the derivative-related revenue decline. Vistra reported diluted EPS of $0.76, down −6.17% from $0.81 a year earlier, and the filing said quarterly net income decreased by $22 million as changes in unrealized commodity-hedging gains and losses affected results. The company reported a 34.6% gross margin versus 36.3% a year earlier, while operating margin was 13.8% versus 12.1%. Vistra reported free cash flow of $356.0 million, compared with −$118.0 million in Q2 FY2025.

Adjusted EPS is the figure the consensus estimates, not the GAAP EPS above.

What management said on the call

Jim Burke said Vistra saw continuing development activity and demand growth in its markets, which he said reinforced the company’s view that longer-term power-market fundamentals were improving. He said the company had focused on preparing its gas and coal fleet for summer operations and achieved commercial availability across the fleet during heat waves in Texas and PJM.

Chris Moldovan said the company’s year-over-year quarterly performance reflected its integrated generation and retail businesses. He said generation benefited from favorable conditions, gas-unit dispatch optimization, the restart of Martin Lake Unit 1 and contributions from acquired plants, while retail benefited from higher contractual rates. The filing said quarterly adjusted EBITDA increased by $412 million year over year, with higher realized capacity prices in the East segment and higher Texas energy margins among the drivers, partly offset by higher maintenance and outage costs.

In response to questions about data-center demand, Stacey, senior vice president of Data Center Solutions, said Vistra remained in active discussions across multiple sites in PJM and ERCOT. Stacey said customers were seeking both energy and capacity arrangements and remained interested in contracting despite regulatory uncertainty. Stacey also said Vistra supported efforts to clarify development queues and co-location rules, while saying customers did not require perfect regulatory clarity before contracting.

Moldovan said Vistra was maintaining flexibility in how it finances projects associated with Helix, its digital-infrastructure investment platform, and that financing decisions would vary by transaction. Burke said Vistra would commit up to $1 billion to Helix over time, including $100 million subject to specified milestones. Moldovan said the company had $1.2 billion remaining under its repurchase authorization and expected to use it no later than the end of 2027, while retaining flexibility to seek additional authorization.

When analysts asked about 2027, Moldovan said lower ERCOT forward prices were only partly offset by higher PJM prices, hedging and production-tax-credit protection. He said the pending Cogentrix acquisition and the Meta power-purchase agreement were excluded from the current outlook and said Vistra expected to update 2026 and 2027 guidance on its third-quarter call, subject to the Cogentrix closing timeline.

Guidance

Vistra reaffirmed FY2026 ongoing-operations adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion–$7.6 billion and ongoing-operations adjusted free-cash-flow-before-growth guidance of $3.9 billion–$4.7 billion. Moldovan said Vistra expected 2027 adjusted EBITDA to trend toward the lower end of its $7.4 billion–$7.8 billion range, with Cogentrix and the Meta agreement excluded from that outlook.