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Valley National Bancorp

VLY Financial Banks Regional

Valley National Bancorp’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $3.5 billion, down 2.44% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+4.94%
EPS
+28.6%
Free cash flow
+2.65%
Total debt
−10.1%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

14.11 0.38 −2.62%
Market cap
$7.7B
P/E
11.0×
Fwd P/E
11.0×
Dividend yield
3.12%
F-score
5/9
Altman Z
n/a
Beneish M
n/a
Dividend safety
n/a
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios
Valuation Filings

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $14.11 the price implies 30.7% a year of dividend growth, at a 9.0% cost of equity.

The dividend a share grew 0.1% a year over the last ten years, 0.1% over the last five. The price asks for more than four times its ten-year rate. Return on equity averaged 8.1% over ten years; the price implies 8.9% for good.

In December 2017 the price assumed 9.2% a year; Valley National Bancorp went on to grow the dividend a share −8.2% a year to FY2025.

Price implies
30.7%
Last 5 years, reported
0.1%
Last 10 years, reported
0.1%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ the dividend a share at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
30.7% a year for ten years
$14.11
today’s price
Its base case
0.1% a year for five years, then 0.1%
$1.46
89.7% below today’s price

Both are growth in the dividend a share, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Valley National Bancorp’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Dividends
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in the dividend. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies the dividend a share growing 30.7% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

The model is a share’s own: no debt to take off and no shares to divide among.

Advanced inputs

Against Valley National Bancorp’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 1.11 × equity premium 4.5% = 9.3% cost of equity; weighted, 9.3%.

Use 9.3%
Base case value per share $1.46 ten years discounted, and what follows
Current price $14.11 market price per share
Below today’s price 89.7% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$0.71 10 years of dividends+$0.74 terminal value=$1.46 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Banks Regional).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 11.02× 11.35× 12.34× 11% below 12.02× 8% below
P/FCF 13.93× 12.73× 12.18× 14% above 10.60× 31% above
P/B 1.03× 0.86× 0.95× 9% above 1.23× 16% below
EV/Sales — 2.44× 3.21× — 3.90× —
P/E P/FCF P/B EV/Sales
6.49×12.11×17.72×23.34×10Y avg 12.18×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

VLY trades at 13.93× P/FCF, against a 10-year average of 12.18× (range 4.00×–24.91×). That is dearer than 67% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $12.34 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.