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Spyre Therapeutics, Inc.

SYRE Healthcare Biotechnology

Spyre Therapeutics, Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2023 (year ended December 2023) was $886,000.00, down 62.0% from fiscal 2022.

EPS
−624.8%
Free cash flow
−108.8%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

103.34 6.75 +6.99%
Market cap
$9.2B
P/E
0.0×
Fwd P/E
−4.8×
Dividend yield
—
F-score
3/9
Altman Z
−3.82
Beneish M
n/a
Dividend safety
n/a
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios
Segments Valuation Filings

Spyre Therapeutics, Inc. (SYRE) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $103.34 the price implies the cash flow shrinking by more than 20% a year.

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ free cash flow after share-based pay at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
Its base case
−10.0% a year for five years, then −6.0%
$4.32
95.8% below today’s price

Both are growth in revenue, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Spyre Therapeutics, Inc.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Revenue and margin
the four quarters to December 2023, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in revenue. It usually slows as the company matures.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

Diluted shares outstanding. Net debt, under Advanced inputs, is taken off before dividing.

Advanced inputs
Free cash flow Revenue and margin
negative is net cash
new shares the cash flow does not pay for

Against Spyre Therapeutics, Inc.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 3.23 × equity premium 4.5% = 18.8% cost of equity; weighted, 18.8%.

Use 18.8%
Equity value $340.78m ▼ below market cap $8.16b
Base case value per share $4.32 equity value ÷ 78.94m shares
Current price $103.34 market price per share
Below today’s price 95.8% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$(731.43m) 10 years of cash to equity+$304.26k terminal value+$1.07b net cash=$340.78m equity value÷78.94m shares=$4.32 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Biotechnology).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/B 9.50× 3.57× 3.09× 207% above 2.05× 364% above
EV/EBITDA — 0.71× 0.71× — 0.65× —
EV/Sales 7,142.99× 1,792.91× 1,792.91× 298% above 8.98× 79466% above
P/B EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
1.29×3.77×6.25×8.74×10Y avg 3.09×201620172018202120222026

SYRE trades at 9.50× P/B, against a 10-year average of 3.09× (range 0.71×–9.50×). That is dearer than 100% of the last 5 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $33.66 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.