Southwest Gas Corporation

SWX Utilities Utilities Regulated Gas

Revenue
−5.91%
EPS
−95.3%
Free cash flow
−30.1%
Total debt
+0.70%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

90.42 1.91 −2.07%
Market cap
$6.6B
P/E
22.1×
Fwd P/E
21.4×
Dividend yield
2.80%
F-score
6/9
Altman Z
1.04
Beneish M
−2.87
Dividend safety
45/100

Southwest Gas Corporation (SWX) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $90.42 the price implies revenue of $18.16 billion by year ten, growing 26.6% a year, at a 10% free-cash-flow margin then.

Free cash flow after share-based pay grew 7.5% a year over the last ten years.

Price implies
26.6%
Last 10 years, reported
7.5%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ free cash flow after share-based pay at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
26.6% a year for ten years
$90.42
today’s price

Both are growth in revenue, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Southwest Gas Corporation’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Revenue and margin
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in revenue. It usually slows as the company matures.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

Diluted shares outstanding. Net debt, under Advanced inputs, is taken off before dividing.

Advanced inputs
negative is net cash
new shares the cash flow does not pay for

Against Southwest Gas Corporation’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.53 × equity premium 4.5% = 6.7% cost of equity; weighted, 6.7%.

Use 6.7%
Equity value $(3.92b) ▼ below market cap $6.56b
Base case value per share $(53.97) equity value ÷ 72.60m shares
Current price $90.42 market price per share
Below today’s price 159.7% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$(1.39b) 10 years of cash to equity+$948.04m terminal value−$3.48b net debt=$(3.92b) equity value÷72.60m shares=$(53.97) per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Utilities Regulated Gas).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 22.07× 22.17× 20.91× 6% above 18.45× 20% above
P/FCF — 30.34× 30.34× — 39.16× —
P/B 1.60× 1.43× 1.52× 5% above 1.60× 0% below
EV/EBITDA 11.88× 14.81× 12.57× 5% below 12.21× 3% below
EV/Sales 5.83× 3.17× 2.70× 116% above 3.95× 47% above
1.30×1.56×1.82×2.09×10Y avg 1.52×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

SWX trades at 1.60× P/B, against a 10-year average of 1.52× (range 1.27×–2.11×). That is dearer than 67% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $86.14 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.