Friday 6 November 2026 Export SHOP’s income statement to Excel — free account

Shopify Inc.

Shopify Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $11.6 billion, up 30.1% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue: +31.6%
EPS: +79.5%
Free cash flow: +61.0%
Total debt: −81.7%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

147.32 3.57 +2.48%

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Market cap: $184.9B
P/E: 87.9×
Fwd P/E: 97.3×
Dividend yield: —
F-score: 6/9
Altman Z: 75.00
Beneish M: −2.19
Dividend safety: n/a

Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis Segments Valuation Filings

Shopify Inc. (SHOP) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $147.32 the price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 25.3% a year for ten years.

Free cash flow after share-based pay grew 75.1% a year over the last five years. The price asks for less than its five-year rate. The industry’s median company is priced for 15.8%.

In December 2020 the price assumed 52.6% a year; Shopify Inc. went on to grow free cash flow after share-based pay 62.9% a year to FY2025.

Price implies: 25.3%
Last 5 years, reported: 75.1%
Industry median implies: 15.8%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ free cash flow after share-based pay at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF

The price needs: 25.3% a year for ten years; $147.32; today’s price
Its base case: 25.0% a year for five years, then 15.0%; $103.16; 30.0% below today’s price

Both are growth in free cash flow after share-based pay, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Shopify Inc.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

1 · Cash flow to equity

Free cash flow (TTM, $ billions)the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings, before share-based pay

Subtract share-based pay ($0.52 billion)

Growth, yrs 1–5 (%)

Growth, yrs 6–10 (%)

Yearly growth in cash flow. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 25.3% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity (%)

Terminal growth (%)

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

Shares (billions)

Current price ($)

Diluted shares outstanding. Net debt, under Advanced inputs, is taken off before dividing.

Advanced inputs

Free cash flow Revenue and margin

Value per share Expected return

Use the analysts’ consensus for years 1–3 (42.8%, 26.0%, 35.8%)

How the model ends

Net debt ($ billions)negative is net cash

Dilution a year (%)new shares the cash flow does not pay for

Margin of safety (%)

Against Shopify Inc.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 2.66 × equity premium 4.5% = 16.3% cost of equity; weighted, 16.3%.

Use 16.3%

Equity value $134.02b ▼ below market cap $191.40b

Base case value per share $103.16 equity value ÷ 1.30b shares

Current price $147.32 market price per share

Below today’s price 30.0% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$41.55b 10 years of cash to equity+$87.74b terminal value+$4.73b net cash=$134.02b equity value÷1.30b shares=$103.16 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Software Application).

Multiple	Current	5Y avg	10Y avg	vs 10Y avg	Industry median	vs industry
P/E	87.94×	224.85×	259.11×	66% below	25.90×	239% above
P/FCF	69.71×	143.73×	934.35×	93% below	17.17×	306% above
P/B	14.55×	11.57×	12.64×	15% above	2.60×	459% above
EV/EBITDA	86.71×	329.37×	329.37×	74% below	15.48×	460% above
EV/Sales	12.84×	13.14×	19.83×	35% below	2.89×	344% above

P/E P/FCF P/B EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

SHOP trades at 69.71× P/FCF, against a 10-year average of 934.35× (range 69.71×–5,468.38×). That is cheaper than 100% of the last 6 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $1,974.63 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.