On Holding AG, the Swiss powerhouse behind those innovative CloudTec running shoes, has been turning heads in the athletic apparel world. With a recent close putting the stock in solid mid-range territory relative to its historical swings, it’s a great time for everyday investors to dig into the fundamentals. The company, which went public in September 2021 amid a hot IPO market for performance brands, has ridden a wave of revenue hypergrowth while navigating post-IPO volatility. Today, we’re unpacking the numbers—from explosive top-line expansion to improving profitability—and what they signal for your portfolio.
Revenue Rocket Fuel and Operational Scale
Let’s start with the headline: revenue. On has been a growth machine. From $269 million in 2019 (pre-IPO ramp-up), it exploded to $2.63 billion in 2024—a whopping 878% increase over five years, or about 85% compounded annually. That’s not just numbers on a spreadsheet; it’s real-world traction in a competitive space dominated by Nike and Adidas. Revenue per employee tells a similar story of efficiency: climbing from around $514,000 in 2020 to $809,000 in 2024 (up 58%), even as headcount ballooned from 883 to 3,254 workers—a 268% jump to fuel global expansion.
Analysts see no slowdown. Projections pencil in $3.89 billion for 2025 (48% growth from 2024), $4.77 billion in 2026 (23% more), and $5.8 billion by 2027 (22% again). This trajectory correlates tightly with rising revenue per share—from $3.17 in 2023 to a forecasted $17.39 in 2027 (448% growth). Why does this matter? Revenue/share is a key gauge of shareholder value creation; it shows how much top-line pie each share gets, stripping out dilution effects. On’s ability to scale without proportionally bloating shares (they’re projected to stabilize around 333 million) bodes well for per-share metrics.
Tie this to stock performance: Post-IPO, shares hit lows of $15.44 in 2022 amid market turmoil and supply chain snarls from COVID, but rebounded to highs of $60.12 in 2024 as revenue momentum kicked in. The stock’s path mirrors this growth—languishing in the $16-28 range during slower years (2022-2023), then surging as 2024’s 32% revenue pop ($1.996B to $2.633B) proved the model’s resilience.
Profitability Turning the Corner
Early losses stung—net income was negative through 2021, peaking at a $186 million loss amid heavy investments. But flip to 2024: $275 million profit, up 210% from 2023’s $87 million. Earnings per share (EPS) followed suit, from $0.28 to $0.85 (204% gain), underscoring why EPS is investor catnip—it directly feeds dividends or buybacks down the line.
Gross margins are the quiet hero here, steady at 52-60% and hitting 60.63% in 2024 (2% better than 2023). In apparel, where cotton prices and labor costs fluctuate, this metric flags pricing power and supply chain smarts—On’s premium positioning lets them charge more for cloud-like cushioning. EBT margin doubled to 12.06%, and ROE hit 19.82% (from 8.01% prior), showing efficient use of equity. ROE matters because it reveals how well management turns your investment into profits; above 15% is elite for growth stocks.
Free cash flow (FCF) flipped positive big-time: $507 million in 2024 vs. a $325 million burn in 2023 (a 256% swing to positive). FCF/share rose from $0.33 to $0.80 (142% up), funding capex without debt piles. Net debt swung to a healthy -$786 million (cash-rich), down from positive debt in earlier years. This cash fortress—bolstered by $580 million operating cash flow—positions On for acquisitions or R&D, like their 2023 push into tennis shoes with Ben Shelton partnerships.
Valuation: Growth at a Price, But Improving
Valuations started nosebleed post-IPO: PE ratios in the 80-95x range in 2022-2023, reflecting sky-high growth expectations. By 2024, PE eased to 64x as earnings caught up, with forecasts at 64x (2025), 31x (2026), and 24x (2027)—normalizing toward mature peers like Lululemon (20-30x). PS ratio peaked at 13.2x in 2024 but drops with revenue projections, signaling better bang-for-buck.
EV/Sales tells the full story: 12.9x in 2024, forecasted to 3.5x by 2025 (73% decline). Why care about EV/Sales? It accounts for debt/cash, giving a cleaner growth multiple—On’s compression suggests the market’s baking in sustained expansion without overpaying. Compared to stock price evolution, when revenue lagged (2022 dip), multiples expanded painfully; now, with FCF flowing, the stock’s 2024 high of ~$60 (pre-recent levels) feels justified.
Book value per share climbed to $2.49 in 2024 (31% from prior), with PB at 22x—pricey, but growth stocks trade here if ROIC stays strong (18.9% in 2024).
Insider Silence and Market Sentiment
Insider transactions? Crickets. Zero buys or sells across 2025-2026 periods tracked. No panic selling amid growth, nor eager buying—neutral signal. Insiders often know best; their quietude amid volatility (stock halved from 2021 highs early on) suggests confidence without complacency.
Stock Price Through the Cycles
Historically, ONON’s price danced with fundamentals and macro waves. 2021 IPO euphoria pushed highs to $55.87 amid running boom post-lockdowns. 2022 bear market and inflation crushed it to $15.44 lows, correlating with that revenue slowdown (from 59% growth prior). Recovery in 2023-2024 tracked margin expansion and FCF positivity, with highs near 3x the 2022 bottom. Recent close sits roughly midway between 2024’s low/high swing, about 76% above 2023 lows but 25% off 2024 peaks—poised if growth delivers.
Major events shaped this: The 2021 IPO raised $1.5 billion for U.S. expansion. COVID accelerated at-home fitness, boosting 2020 revenue 69%. Zendaya’s 2024 creative director role and NBA/WNBA deals amplified buzz, correlating with 2024’s profit surge. Headwinds like 2022’s Swiss franc strength and China lockdowns tested resilience, but On’s direct-to-consumer shift (now ~30% sales) insulated margins.
Analyst Outlook and Your Play
Analysts are bullish on the runway: Revenue tripling by 2027 implies 30%+ CAGR, with EPS hitting $1.87 (120% from 2024). Net income projected at $608 million by 2027 (121% up from 2024, after a 2025 dip to $226 million—perhaps conservative on costs). ROA at 14.3% signals asset efficiency.
Price targets relative to recent close? The low end implies ~49% downside risk—bearish if growth stutters. Average target suggests ~6% upside, a “hold” vibe. High end points to ~49% potential gain, rewarding believers in On’s premium niche.
Bottom line for retail investors: On’s not cheap, but the numbers scream quality growth. If you’re in running shoes or athleisure, this is a watchlist staple—pair with diversification, as consumer spending whims (recession fears) loom. Fundamentals align for 20-30% annual returns if execution holds; I’d eye dips below recent levels for entry. Track Q4 earnings for capex clues—continued FCF growth could ignite the next leg up.
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