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McDonald's Corporation

MCD Consumer Cyclical Restaurants

McDonald's Corporation’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $26.9 billion, up 3.72% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+1.12%
EPS
+5.73%
Free cash flow
+57.9%
Total debt
−3.72%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

276.41 1.63 −0.59%
Market cap
$196.8B
P/E
22.6×
Fwd P/E
20.2×
Dividend yield
2.68%
F-score
7/9
Altman Z
4.92
Beneish M
−2.60
Dividend safety
70/100
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
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McDonald's Corporation (MCD) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $276.41 the price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 11.2% a year for ten years.

Free cash flow after share-based pay grew 4.8% a year over the last ten years, 4.3% over the last five. The price asks for about twice its ten-year rate. The industry’s median company is priced for 11.6%.

In December 2017 the price assumed 17.6% a year; McDonald's Corporation went on to grow free cash flow after share-based pay 8.4% a year to FY2025.

Price implies
11.2%
Last 5 years, reported
4.3%
Last 10 years, reported
4.8%
Industry median implies
11.6%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ free cash flow after share-based pay at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
11.2% a year for ten years
$276.41
today’s price
Its base case
4.8% a year for five years, then 2.9%
$137.27
50.3% below today’s price

Both are growth in free cash flow after share-based pay, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record McDonald's Corporation’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Cash flow to equity
the four quarters to June 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings, before share-based pay

Yearly growth in cash flow. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 11.2% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

Diluted shares outstanding. Net debt, under Advanced inputs, is taken off before dividing.

Advanced inputs
Free cash flow Revenue and margin
negative is net cash
new shares the cash flow does not pay for

Against McDonald's Corporation’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.43 × equity premium 4.5% = 6.2% cost of equity; weighted, 6.2%.

Use 6.2%
Equity value $97.78b ▼ below market cap $196.89b
Base case value per share $137.27 equity value ÷ 712.33m shares
Current price $276.41 market price per share
Below today’s price 50.3% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$61.45b 10 years of cash to equity+$75.37b terminal value−$39.04b net debt=$97.78b equity value÷712.33m shares=$137.27 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Restaurants).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 22.57× 26.18× 26.75× 16% below 26.18× 14% below
P/FCF 24.84× 29.99× 30.52× 19% below 17.92× 39% above
EV/EBITDA 15.78× 18.02× 17.92× 12% below 12.81× 23% above
EV/Sales 8.56× 9.48× 9.13× 6% below 1.29× 562% above
P/E P/FCF EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
22.63×26.37×30.10×33.84×10Y avg 26.75×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

MCD trades at 22.57× P/E, against a 10-year average of 26.75× (range 22.57×–34.01×). That is cheaper than 100% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $327.65 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.