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Erie Indemnity Company

ERIE Financial Insurance Brokers

Erie Indemnity Company’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $4.1 billion, up 7.17% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+0.30%
EPS
+0.25%
Free cash flow
+0.52%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

275.34 10.29 −3.60%
Market cap
$13.3B
P/E
22.9×
Fwd P/E
20.6×
Dividend yield
2.06%
F-score
6/9
Altman Z
n/a
Beneish M
n/a
Dividend safety
n/a
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios
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Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $275.34 the price implies 18.8% a year of dividend growth, at a 9.0% cost of equity.

The dividend a share grew 7.2% a year over the last ten years, −1.4% over the last five. The price asks for about three times its ten-year rate. Return on equity averaged 27.0% over ten years; the price implies 34.9% for good.

In December 2017 the price assumed 16.2% a year; Erie Indemnity Company went on to grow the dividend a share 16.7% a year to FY2025.

Price implies
18.8%
Last 5 years, reported
−1.4%
Last 10 years, reported
7.2%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ the dividend a share at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
18.8% a year for ten years
$275.34
today’s price
Its base case
7.2% a year for five years, then 4.3%
$105.00
61.9% below today’s price

Both are growth in the dividend a share, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Erie Indemnity Company’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Dividends
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in the dividend. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies the dividend a share growing 18.8% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

The model is a share’s own: no debt to take off and no shares to divide among.

Advanced inputs

Against Erie Indemnity Company’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.22 × equity premium 4.5% = 5.3% cost of equity; weighted, 5.3%.

Use 5.3%
Base case value per share $105.00 ten years discounted, and what follows
Current price $275.34 market price per share
Below today’s price 61.9% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$45.15 10 years of dividends+$59.86 terminal value=$105.00 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Insurance Brokers).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 22.94× 30.39× 29.51× 22% below 22.14× 4% above
P/FCF 23.71× 35.48× 34.27× 31% below 22.32× 6% above
P/B 5.15× 7.53× 7.33× 30% below 3.02× 70% above
EV/EBITDA — 26.69× 24.06× — 3.38× —
EV/Sales — 4.04× 3.65× — 3.90× —
P/E P/FCF P/B EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
22.45×27.73×33.01×38.29×10Y avg 29.51×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

ERIE trades at 22.94× P/E, against a 10-year average of 29.51× (range 21.54×–38.98×). That is cheaper than 89% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $354.26 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.