Ecopetrol S.A.
EC Energy Oil & Gas Integrated
Ecopetrol S.A.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $23.9 billion, down 83.7% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to December 2025, revenue fell 95.2%, EPS grew 22.6%, free cash flow fell 89.8% and total debt fell 83.4%, each against the same quarter a year earlier.
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Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) Beneish M-score
Ecopetrol S.A.'s Beneish M-score for fiscal 2025 is −3.66; values above −1.78 are the model's flag for possible earnings manipulation — a statistical screen, not a finding.
Beneish M-score, annual
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Annual newest first
| Period | Beneish M-score | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | −3.66 | (0.36) |
| FY2024 | −3.30 | (0.87) |
| FY2023 | −2.43 | (0.53) |
| FY2022 | −1.90 | (1.03) |
| FY2021 | −0.88 | 1.93 |
| FY2020 | −2.80 | 0.41 |
| FY2019 | −3.22 | (0.73) |
| FY2018 | −2.49 | (0.18) |
| FY2017 | −2.31 | (1.41) |
| FY2016 | −0.90 | 2.67 |
How fiscal 2025’s score is made up
| Component | This year | Year before | Result | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days’ sales in receivables index | 0.81 | — | 0.75 | |
| Gross margin index | 1.12 | — | 0.59 | |
| Asset quality index | 1.00 | — | 0.40 | |
| Sales growth index | 0.16 | — | 0.15 | |
| Depreciation index | 0.94 | — | 0.11 | |
| SG&A index | 1.10 | — | −0.19 | |
| Total accruals to total assets | (0.07) | — | −0.31 | |
| Leverage index | 0.95 | — | −0.31 | |
| Beneish M-score | Low — no pattern the model associates with manipulation | −3.66 | ||
How the Beneish M-score works
M = −4.84 + 0.920 × DSRI + 0.528 × GMI + 0.404 × AQI + 0.892 × SGI + 0.115 × DEPI − 0.172 × SGAI + 4.679 × TATA − 0.327 × LVGI (Beneish, 1999): eight changes in the accounts from one fiscal year to the next, which the model weighs for the pattern seen in companies that later restated their earnings. Higher is worse.
| below −2.22 | Low — no pattern the model associates with manipulation |
|---|---|
| −2.22 to −1.78 | Elevated |
| above −1.78 | Flagged by the model |
−1.78 is the cut-off usually quoted from the paper, −2.22 a common conservative one. A statistical screen, not a finding of wrongdoing.
When asset quality, depreciation or SG&A cannot be worked out, that index is set to 1, as Beneish did, and the breakdown says so; with all three missing there is no score. Depreciation includes amortisation, and asset quality leaves out securities. Not worked out for banks, insurers and REITs.
Beneish M-score against peers
| Company | Beneish M-score |
|---|---|
| EC Ecopetrol S.A. | −3.7× |
| YPF YPF Sociedad Anonima compare | −3.1× |
| EQNR Equinor ASA compare | −3.0× |
| E Eni SpA compare | −3.0× |
| BP BP p.l.c. compare | −3.0× |
| PBR.A Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras compare | −2.6× |
| PBR Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras compare | −2.6× |
| CVE Cenovus Energy Inc compare | −2.5× |
| NFG National Fuel Gas Company compare | −2.4× |
What Beneish M-score is
The Beneish M-Score combines eight year-on-year changes in the accounts into a statistical screen for patterns seen in companies that overstated earnings.
−4.84 + 0.920 × DSRI + 0.528 × GMI + 0.404 × AQI + 0.892 × SGI + 0.115 × DEPI − 0.172 × SGAI + 4.679 × TATA − 0.327 × LVGI