Ecopetrol S.A.
EC Energy Oil & Gas Integrated
Ecopetrol S.A.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $23.9 billion, down 83.7% from fiscal 2024. In the quarter to December 2025, revenue fell 95.2%, EPS grew 22.6%, free cash flow fell 89.8% and total debt fell 83.4%, each against the same quarter a year earlier.
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Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) Altman Z-score
Ecopetrol S.A.'s Altman Z-score for fiscal 2025 is 1.21, in the distress zone (below 1.81).
Altman Z-score, annual
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Annual newest first
| Period | Altman Z-score | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 1.21 | 0.15 |
| FY2024 | 1.06 | (0.21) |
| FY2023 | 1.27 | (0.20) |
| FY2022 | 1.46 | 0.41 |
| FY2021 | 1.06 | 0.33 |
| FY2020 | 0.73 | (0.70) |
| FY2019 | 1.43 | (0.10) |
| FY2018 | 1.53 | 0.30 |
| FY2017 | 1.23 | 0.40 |
| FY2016 | 0.83 | 0.14 |
How fiscal 2025’s score is made up
| Component | This year | Year before | Result | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Working capital / total assets | 0.07 | — | 0.08 | |
| Retained earnings / total assets | 0.03 | — | 0.04 | |
| EBIT / total assets | 0.09 | — | 0.31 | |
| Market value of equity / total liabilities | 0.59 | — | 0.35 | |
| Sales / total assets | 0.42 | — | 0.42 | |
| Altman Z-score | Distress zone | 1.21 | ||
| Z″ Variant for non-manufacturing and asset-light companies (drops the sales/assets term, uses book equity) | Grey zone | 1.80 | ||
Z and Z″ put Ecopetrol S.A. in different zones: distress zone by Z, grey zone by Z″.
How the Altman Z-score works
Z = 1.2 × working capital ÷ total assets + 1.4 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 3.3 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 0.6 × market value of equity ÷ total liabilities + 1.0 × revenue ÷ total assets (Altman, 1968). The market value of equity is the close on the last trading day of the fiscal year times weighted basic shares.
Z″ = 6.56 × working capital ÷ total assets + 3.26 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 6.72 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 1.05 × book equity ÷ total liabilities (Altman, Hartzell and Peck, 1995), the variant for non-manufacturing and asset-light companies.
| Zone | Z | Z″ |
|---|---|---|
| Safe zone | above 2.99 | above 2.60 |
| Grey zone | 1.81–2.99 | 1.10–2.60 |
| Distress zone | below 1.81 | below 1.10 |
Not worked out for banks, insurers and REITs, whose balance sheets the model does not describe, nor when a figure is missing or there is no share price in the week to the fiscal year end.
Altman Z-score against peers
| Company | Altman Z-score |
|---|---|
| EQNR Equinor ASA compare | 2.4× |
| CVE Cenovus Energy Inc compare | 2.2× |
| NFG National Fuel Gas Company compare | 1.7× |
| E Eni SpA compare | 1.5× |
| PBR Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras compare | 1.5× |
| PBR.A Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras compare | 1.5× |
| BP BP p.l.c. compare | 1.3× |
| YPF YPF Sociedad Anonima compare | 1.2× |
| EC Ecopetrol S.A. | 1.2× |
What Altman Z-score is
The Altman Z-Score weighs working capital, retained earnings, operating profit, market value and sales against assets and debts to gauge the risk of distress.
1.2 × working capital ÷ total assets + 1.4 × retained earnings ÷ total assets + 3.3 × EBIT ÷ total assets + 0.6 × market value of equity ÷ total liabilities + 1.0 × revenue ÷ total assets