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Deere & Company

DE Industrials Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Deere & Company’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended October 2025) was $45.7 billion, down 11.7% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+4.91%
EPS
+7.35%
Free cash flow
−20.1%
Total debt
−4.22%

Quarter to July 2026, against a year earlier

675.36 12.05 +1.82%
Market cap
$178.9B
P/E
36.9×
Fwd P/E
37.3×
Dividend yield
0.97%
F-score
6/9
Altman Z
2.92
Beneish M
−2.60
Dividend safety
74/100
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
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Segments Valuation Filings

Deere & Company (DE) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $675.36 the price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 11.1% a year for ten years.

Free cash flow after share-based pay grew 8.3% a year over the last ten years, −0.1% over the last five. The price asks for close to its ten-year rate. The industry’s median company is priced for 8.3%.

In October 2017 the price assumed 4.8% a year; Deere & Company went on to grow free cash flow after share-based pay 12.9% a year to FY2025.

Price implies
11.1%
Last 5 years, reported
−0.1%
Last 10 years, reported
8.3%
Industry median implies
8.3%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ free cash flow after share-based pay at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
11.1% a year for ten years
$675.36
today’s price
Its base case
8.3% a year for five years, then 5.0%
$437.32
35.2% below today’s price

Both are growth in free cash flow after share-based pay, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Deere & Company’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Cash flow to equity
the four quarters to July 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings, before share-based pay

Yearly growth in cash flow. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 11.1% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

Diluted shares outstanding. Net debt, under Advanced inputs, is taken off before dividing.

Advanced inputs
Free cash flow Revenue and margin
negative is net cash
new shares the cash flow does not pay for

Against Deere & Company’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.89 × equity premium 4.5% = 8.3% cost of equity; after-tax cost of debt 3.4%; weighted, 7.0%.

Use 7.0%
Equity value $118.52b ▼ below market cap $183.04b
Base case value per share $437.32 equity value ÷ 271.03m shares
Current price $675.36 market price per share
Below today’s price 35.2% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$72.57b 10 years of cash to equity+$99.52b terminal value−$53.56b net debt=$118.52b equity value÷271.03m shares=$437.32 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 36.87× 20.97× 20.52× 80% above 21.67× 70% above
P/FCF 22.42× 16.56× 15.00× 49% above 20.59× 9% above
P/B 6.41× 5.39× 5.18× 24% above 1.31× 388% above
EV/EBITDA 19.94× 13.98× 13.60× 47% above 11.30× 77% above
EV/Sales 4.86× 3.57× 3.15× 54% above 1.11× 339% above
P/E P/FCF P/B EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
13.29×20.55×27.82×35.08×10Y avg 20.52×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

DE trades at 36.87× P/E, against a 10-year average of 20.52× (range 10.50×–36.87×). That is dearer than 100% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $375.94 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.