CareTrust REIT, Inc.

CTRE Real Estate Reit Healthcare Facilities

CareTrust REIT, Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $476.4 million, up 60.8% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+33.2%
EPS
0.00%
Free cash flow
+200.7%
Total debt
+131.7%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

38.22 1.04 +2.80%
Market cap
$8.8B
P/E
24.0×
Fwd P/E
24.5×
Dividend yield
3.94%
F-score
6/9
Altman Z
n/a
Beneish M
n/a
Dividend safety
n/a

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $38.22 the price implies FFO a share growing 5.1% a year for ten years.

FFO a share grew 7.5% a year over the last ten years, −0.8% over the last five. The price asks for close to its ten-year rate. The industry’s median company is priced for 5.1%.

In December 2017 the price assumed 0.4% a year; CareTrust REIT, Inc. went on to grow FFO a share 3.4% a year to FY2025.

FFO a share is worked out from CareTrust REIT, Inc.’s 10-Ks and 10-Qs: net income, plus the depreciation of its property and impairments, less gains on property sales.

Price implies
5.1%
Last 5 years, reported
−0.8%
Last 10 years, reported
7.5%
Industry median implies
5.1%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ FFO a share at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
5.1% a year for ten years
$38.22
today’s price
Its base case
7.5% a year for five years, then 4.5%
$41.41
8.4% above today’s price

Both are growth in FFO a share, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record CareTrust REIT, Inc.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · FFO a share
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in FFO a share. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies FFO a share growing 5.1% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

The model is a share’s own: no debt to take off and no shares to divide among.

Advanced inputs

Against CareTrust REIT, Inc.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.78 × equity premium 4.5% = 7.8% cost of equity; weighted, 7.8%.

Use 7.8%
Base case value per share $41.41 ten years discounted, and what follows
Current price $38.22 market price per share
Above today’s price 8.4% upside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$17.72 10 years of FFO+$23.69 terminal value=$41.41 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Reit Healthcare Facilities).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 24.04× 31.58× 32.79× 27% below 25.44× 6% below
P/FCF — 14.46× 14.46× — 18.55× —
P/B 1.72× 1.76× 1.95× 12% below 1.72× 0% above
EV/EBITDA 21.53× 17.18× 16.97× 27% above 17.56× 23% above
EV/Sales 17.52× 14.86× 14.45× 21% above 8.15× 115% above
P/FFO 19.22× 17.67× 14.49× 33% above — —
1.47×1.77×2.07×2.36×10Y avg 1.95×2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

CTRE trades at 1.72× P/B, against a 10-year average of 1.95× (range 1.44×–2.39×). That is cheaper than 78% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $43.34 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.