Carlyle Group Inc.

CG Financial Asset Management

Carlyle Group Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $4.8 billion, down 11.9% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
−28.6%
EPS
−57.3%
Free cash flow
+82.6%
Total debt
+35.2%

Quarter to June 2026, against a year earlier

39.43 0.53 −1.33%
Market cap
$14.2B
P/E
39.7×
Fwd P/E
14.5×
Dividend yield
3.49%
F-score
2/9
Altman Z
n/a
Beneish M
n/a
Dividend safety
n/a

Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $39.43 the price implies 4.2% a year of dividend growth, at a 9.0% cost of equity.

The dividend a share grew −20.0% a year over the last ten years, 13.8% over the last five. The price asks for 24.3 points a year more than its ten-year rate. Return on equity averaged 14.8% over ten years; the price implies 15.2% for good.

Price implies
4.2%
Last 5 years, reported
13.8%
Last 10 years, reported
−20.0%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ the dividend a share at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
4.2% a year for ten years
$39.43
today’s price
Its base case
−10.0% a year for five years, then −6.0%
$15.49
60.7% below today’s price

Both are growth in the dividend a share, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Carlyle Group Inc.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Dividends
the four quarters to June 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in the dividend. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies the dividend a share growing 4.2% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

The model is a share’s own: no debt to take off and no shares to divide among.

Advanced inputs

Against Carlyle Group Inc.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 1.83 × equity premium 4.5% = 12.5% cost of equity; after-tax cost of debt 5.0%; weighted, 8.8%.

Use 8.8%
Base case value per share $15.49 ten years discounted, and what follows
Current price $39.43 market price per share
Below today’s price 60.7% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$9.16 10 years of dividends+$6.33 terminal value=$15.49 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Asset Management).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 39.72× 19.82× 39.06× 2% above 13.38× 197% above
P/FCF — 11.06× 11.06× — 7.79× —
P/B 1.99× 2.39× 2.18× 9% below 0.91× 119% above
EV/EBITDA — 24.43× 15.90× — 3.38× —
EV/Sales — 2.76× 2.51× — 3.90× —
10.29×10.69×11.10×11.50×10Y avg 11.06×20192021

P/FCF has no reading today; its 10-year average is 11.06×.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.