Casey's General Stores, Inc.

CASY Consumer Cyclical Specialty Retail

Casey's General Stores, Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2026 (year ended April 2026) was $17.6 billion, up 10.2% from fiscal 2025.

Revenue
+24.3%
EPS
+27.6%
Free cash flow
−31.0%
Total debt
−1.64%

Quarter to July 2026, against a year earlier

674.59 9.20 +1.38%
Market cap
$24.6B
P/E
32.0×
Fwd P/E
31.9×
Dividend yield
0.37%
F-score
8/9
Altman Z
6.64
Beneish M
−2.53
Dividend safety
93/100

Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $674.59 the price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 16.1% a year for ten years.

Free cash flow after share-based pay grew 33.0% a year over the last ten years, 6.2% over the last five. The price asks for less than its ten-year rate. The industry’s median company is priced for 8.2%.

In April 2017 the price assumed 35.9% a year; Casey's General Stores, Inc. went on to grow free cash flow after share-based pay 49.0% a year to FY2026.

Price implies
16.1%
Last 5 years, reported
6.2%
Last 10 years, reported
33.0%
Industry median implies
8.2%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ free cash flow after share-based pay at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
16.1% a year for ten years
$674.59
today’s price
Its base case
25.0% a year for five years, then 15.0%
$938.95
39.2% above today’s price

Both are growth in free cash flow after share-based pay, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Casey's General Stores, Inc.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Cash flow to equity
the four quarters to July 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings, before share-based pay

Yearly growth in cash flow. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 16.1% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

Diluted shares outstanding. Net debt, under Advanced inputs, is taken off before dividing.

Advanced inputs
negative is net cash
new shares the cash flow does not pay for

Against Casey's General Stores, Inc.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.59 × equity premium 4.5% = 7.0% cost of equity; weighted, 7.0%.

Use 7.0%
Equity value $34.96b ▲ above market cap $25.12b
Base case value per share $938.95 equity value ÷ 37.24m shares
Current price $674.59 market price per share
Above today’s price 39.2% upside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$11.85b 10 years of cash to equity+$25.02b terminal value−$1.91b net debt=$34.96b equity value÷37.24m shares=$938.95 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Specialty Retail).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 31.96× 29.82× 25.19× 27% above 19.02× 68% above
P/FCF 36.41× 31.04× 44.39× 18% below 13.93× 161% above
P/B 6.02× 5.17× 4.32× 40% above 2.03× 197% above
EV/EBITDA 17.07× 15.59× 13.22× 29% above 7.66× 123% above
EV/Sales 1.42× 1.21× 0.94× 51% above 0.72× 97% above
24.28×60.90×97.52×134.13×10Y avg 44.39×2017201920202021202220232024202520262026

CASY trades at 36.41× P/FCF, against a 10-year average of 44.39× (range 14.09×–145.18×). That is dearer than 67% of the last 9 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $822.37 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.