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Burlington Stores, Inc.

BURL Consumer Cyclical Apparel Retail

Burlington Stores, Inc.’s revenue for fiscal 2026 (year ended January 2026) was $11.6 billion, up 8.76% from fiscal 2025.

Revenue
+11.0%
EPS
+95.9%
Free cash flow
+31.7%
Total debt
−6.17%

Quarter to July 2026, against a year earlier

250.93 7.45 −2.88%
Market cap
$15.8B
P/E
22.5×
Fwd P/E
20.6×
Dividend yield
—
F-score
7/9
Altman Z
3.19
Beneish M
−2.62
Dividend safety
n/a
Overview Business Profile Earnings & Analysis
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Metrics & Ratios
Valuation Filings

Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $250.93 the price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 20.1% a year for ten years.

The industry’s median company is priced for 7.2%.

In January 2017 the price assumed 6.8% a year; Burlington Stores, Inc. went on to grow free cash flow after share-based pay −15.5% a year to FY2026.

Price implies
20.1%
Industry median implies
7.2%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ free cash flow after share-based pay at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
20.1% a year for ten years
$250.93
today’s price
Its base case
5.0% a year for five years, then 3.0%
$62.23
75.2% below today’s price

Both are growth in free cash flow after share-based pay, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Burlington Stores, Inc.’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Cash flow to equity
the four quarters to July 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings, before share-based pay

Yearly growth in cash flow. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies free cash flow after share-based pay growing 20.1% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

Diluted shares outstanding. Net debt, under Advanced inputs, is taken off before dividing.

Advanced inputs
Free cash flow Revenue and margin
negative is net cash
new shares the cash flow does not pay for

Against Burlington Stores, Inc.’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 1.52 × equity premium 4.5% = 11.1% cost of equity; weighted, 11.1%.

Use 11.1%
Equity value $3.99b ▼ below market cap $16.07b
Base case value per share $62.23 equity value ÷ 64.06m shares
Current price $250.93 market price per share
Below today’s price 75.2% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$2.33b 10 years of cash to equity+$2.87b terminal value−$1.21b net debt=$3.99b equity value÷64.06m shares=$62.23 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Apparel Retail).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 22.53× 38.45× 34.12× 34% below 13.45× 67% above
P/FCF 38.28× 56.39× 42.03× 9% below 11.85× 223% above
P/B 7.88× 12.57× 27.73× 72% below 1.91× 313% above
EV/EBITDA 11.77× 16.63× 15.77× 25% below 8.18× 44% above
EV/Sales 1.39× 1.60× 1.81× 23% below 0.55× 154% above
P/E P/FCF P/B EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
23.30×44.98×66.67×88.35×10Y avg 42.03×201720182019202020222023202420262026

BURL trades at 38.28× P/FCF, against a 10-year average of 42.03× (range 13.54×–94.47×). That is dearer than 75% of the last 8 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $275.51 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.