Axis Capital Holdings Limited

AXS Financial Insurance Specialty

Axis Capital Holdings Limited’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $6.6 billion, up 10.2% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+6.91%
EPS
−24.1%
Free cash flow
+31.7%
Total debt
−4.85%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

106.03 1.90 −1.76%
Market cap
$7.7B
P/E
8.0×
Fwd P/E
8.2×
Dividend yield
1.64%
F-score
6/9
Altman Z
n/a
Beneish M
n/a
Dividend safety
n/a

Axis Capital Holdings Limited (AXS) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $106.03 the price implies 20.1% a year of dividend growth, at a 9.0% cost of equity.

The dividend a share grew 4.2% a year over the last ten years, 1.4% over the last five. The price asks for more than four times its ten-year rate. Return on equity averaged 6.6% over ten years; the price implies 10.5% for good.

Price implies
20.1%
Last 5 years, reported
1.4%
Last 10 years, reported
4.2%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ the dividend a share at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
20.1% a year for ten years
$106.03
today’s price
Its base case
4.2% a year for five years, then 2.5%
$30.32
71.4% below today’s price

Both are growth in the dividend a share, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Axis Capital Holdings Limited’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Dividends
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in the dividend. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies the dividend a share growing 20.1% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

The model is a share’s own: no debt to take off and no shares to divide among.

Advanced inputs

Against Axis Capital Holdings Limited’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.39 × equity premium 4.5% = 6.1% cost of equity; weighted, 6.1%.

Use 6.1%
Base case value per share $30.32 ten years discounted, and what follows
Current price $106.03 market price per share
Below today’s price 71.4% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$13.77 10 years of dividends+$16.56 terminal value=$30.32 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Insurance Specialty).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 8.04× 12.28× 584.84× 99% below 9.49× 15% below
P/FCF 3.00× 4.23× 11.87× 75% below 8.44× 64% below
P/B 1.36× 1.26× 1.11× 22% above 1.23× 10% above
EV/EBITDA — 8.57× 11.68× — 3.38× —
EV/Sales — 0.99× 1.00× — 3.90× —
5.95×15.26×24.57×33.87×10Y avg 11.87×201620172019202020212022202320242026

AXS trades at 3.00× P/FCF, against a 10-year average of 11.87× (range 3.00×–36.69×). That is cheaper than 100% of the last 8 year-end readings; re-rating to the average implies $419.55 per share.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.