Aon plc

AON Financial Insurance Brokers

Aon plc’s revenue for fiscal 2025 (year ended December 2025) was $17.2 billion, up 9.45% from fiscal 2024.

Revenue
+2.60%
EPS
+5.66%
Free cash flow
+1.67%
Total debt
+67.0%

Quarter to September 2026, against a year earlier

343.42 1.25 −0.36%
Market cap
$73.1B
P/E
18.7×
Fwd P/E
22.9×
Dividend yield
0.93%
F-score
6/9
Altman Z
n/a
Beneish M
n/a
Dividend safety
n/a

Aon plc (AON) valuation and DCF model

What the price implies · reverse DCF

At $343.42 the price implies 28.6% a year of dividend growth, at a 9.0% cost of equity.

The dividend a share grew 9.8% a year over the last ten years, 10.4% over the last five. The price asks for about three times its ten-year rate. Return on equity averaged 63.7% over ten years; the price implies 49.0% for good.

In December 2017 the price assumed 27.0% a year; Aon plc went on to grow the dividend a share 36.4% a year to FY2025.

Price implies
28.6%
Last 5 years, reported
10.4%
Last 10 years, reported
9.8%

The headline discounts the last twelve months’ the dividend a share at 9.0% for ten years and grows it 2.5% a year after that, the same for every company, so the figure compares across the market (how a reverse DCF works).

The other way round · DCF
The price needs
28.6% a year for ten years
$343.42
today’s price
Its base case
9.8% a year for five years, then 5.9%
$75.09
78.1% below today’s price

Both are growth in the dividend a share, discounted at 9.0%, with 2.5% a year after year ten.

Base case on its own ten-year record Aon plc’s own growth, carried forward

Its assumptions

Powerpack lets you start from a scenario and type over any of them.

The base case’s inputs, which Powerpack lets you change
1 · Dividends
the four quarters to September 2026, from the 10-Q and 10-K filings

Yearly growth in the dividend. It usually slows as the company matures.

Today’s price implies the dividend a share growing 28.6% a year for ten years.

2 · Rates

Cost of equity is the yearly return shareholders require, typically 8–11%. Terminal growth is growth forever after year 10, usually near long-run inflation, 2–3%.

3 · Per share

The model is a share’s own: no debt to take off and no shares to divide among.

Advanced inputs

Against Aon plc’s own cost of capital: risk-free 4.3% + beta 0.62 × equity premium 4.5% = 7.1% cost of equity; weighted, 7.1%.

Use 7.1%
Base case value per share $75.09 ten years discounted, and what follows
Current price $343.42 market price per share
Below today’s price 78.1% downside at the base case’s assumptions

How we got there$30.86 10 years of dividends+$44.23 terminal value=$75.09 per share

Valuation against its own history

Today’s multiple against its 5- and 10-year averages and the industry median (Insurance Brokers).

Multiple Current 5Y avg 10Y avg vs 10Y avg Industry median vs industry 10Y range
P/E 18.72× 22.99× 28.54× 34% below 22.14× 15% below
P/FCF 22.32× 22.47× 28.11× 21% below 22.32× 0% above
P/B 7.15× 19.85× 14.98× 52% below 3.02× 136% above
EV/EBITDA — 20.94× 19.74× — 3.38× —
EV/Sales — 5.68× 5.01× — 3.90× —
16.67×21.40×26.12×30.84×10Y avg 19.74×2016201720182019202020212022202320242025

EV/EBITDA has no reading today; its 10-year average is 19.74×.

Every growth rate on this page is the business’s — its cash flow, FFO or dividend — never its share price’s. A discounted-cash-flow model is only as good as its assumptions. Figures from the 10-K and 10-Q filings. Not investment advice.